Creck v Red Lions prediction · Super League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CreckDrawRed Lions

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Creck 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Creck are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Creck 50%, draw 30%, Red Lions 20%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Creck v Red LionsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Creck win50%

Draw30%

Red Lions win20%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 18

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Creck

Red Lions

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Super League (Malawi)

Last match: 18 Oct · Super League (Malawi)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Red Lions	17	−1	22
15	Creck	17	−9	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · creck winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Creck a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Creck v Red Lions~~1.28 – 0.69

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 8 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 22~~15 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Creck win	50%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Red Lions win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Creck or draw	80%	–	–
Creck clean sheet	50%	–	–
Red Lions clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.5%

0123450 14.4 9.5 3.4 1 17.5 12.3 4.2 2 11.3 7.7 2.7 3 4.9 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Creck down, Red Lions across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,340 Super League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.1% of games this season, across 140 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Creck at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Red Lions away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Creck, 0.69 for Red Lions. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~RED 1–1 CRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 8 Aug

CRECK

LDWDWL0–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

RED LIONS

DWLDDD0–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nyasa Big Bullets	18	+19	39
2	Be Forward Wanderers	17	+18	35
3	Blue Eagles	18	+8	34
4	Silver Strikers	18	+13	33
5	Ekhaya	18	+4	25
6	Mitundu Baptist	18	+1	25
7	Chitipa United	18	−6	25
8	Masters FC	17	0	23
9	Red Lions	17	−1	22
10	Moyale Barracks	17	−3	21
11	CIVO United	18	−6	21
12	Dedza Dynamos	17	−9	19
13	Karonga United	16	−8	17
14	Kamuzu Barracks	18	−9	14
15	Creck	17	−9	13
16	MAFCO	18	−12	13