Creck v Moyale Barracks prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04

Creck 2–1 Moyale Barracks CRECK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Creck win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.430

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Creck win at 47%.
1′KICK-OFF Creck v Moyale Barracks
3′Much as we predicted: Creck was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–30–24
5′Much as we predicted: Creck was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–30–24
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Creck 1–0 Moyale Barracks
24′21′ and it is 0–0: Creck have scored. 0–0 · 42–35–23
27′21′ and it is 0–0: Creck have scored. 0–0 · 41–36–23
29′21′ and it is 0–0: Creck have scored. 0–0 · 40–37–23
45′44′ and it is 1–0: Creck have scored. 1–0 · 80–17–4
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Creck 1–0 Moyale Barracks
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Creck win: 47% at kick-off, 80% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Creck win: 47% at kick-off, 40% now
45′HALF-TIME Creck 1–0 Moyale Barracks
46′SECOND HALF Creck 1–0 Moyale Barracks
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Creck win: 47% at kick-off, 80% now
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Creck 1–1 Moyale Barracks
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Creck 2–1 Moyale Barracks
FTFULL TIME Creck 2–1 Moyale Barracks
FTCreck 2–1 Moyale Barracks · Creck win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Creck win47%

Draw29%

Moyale Barracks win24%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Creck

Moyale Barracks

35Days since last match36

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Moyale Barracks	15	−1	21
16	Creck	15	−9	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · creck winPublished 11 Oct 13:43

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Creck a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Creck win	47%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Moyale Barracks win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Creck or draw	76%	–	–
Creck clean sheet	44%	–	–
Moyale Barracks clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.3%

0123450 12.4 10.0 4.2 1 15.3 12.9 5.3 2 9.8 8.1 3.4 3 4.2 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Creck down, Moyale Barracks across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,324 Super League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.1% of games this season, across 124 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 1.80 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Creck at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Moyale Barracks away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Creck, 0.84 for Moyale Barracks. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~MOY 1–0 CRE · MOY 2–0 CRE · CRE 1–0 MOY · MOY 0–0 CRE

Form · last six in Super League

CRECK

LLLDWD0–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–0

MOYALE BARRACKS

DWDLDW2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Be Forward Wanderers	16	+17	32
2	Blue Eagles	15	+8	31
3	Nyasa Big Bullets	15	+13	30
4	Silver Strikers	16	+12	29
5	Chitipa United	16	−3	24
6	Masters FC	15	+1	22
7	Ekhaya	16	+3	21
8	Moyale Barracks	15	−1	21
9	Mitundu Baptist	16	−1	21
10	Red Lions	16	−1	21
11	CIVO United	15	−4	20
12	Dedza Dynamos	15	−10	15
13	Karonga United	15	−9	14
14	MAFCO	16	−7	13
15	Kamuzu Barracks	16	−9	12
16	Creck	15	−9	10