Home › Football › Super League › Chitipa United v MAFCO

Chitipa United v MAFCO

Chitipa United

2–0Full time

MAFCO

Super League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:06

Chitipa United 2–0 MAFCO CHITIPA UNITED WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chitipa United win~~44%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.474

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.424

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chitipa United win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Chitipa United v MAFCO
2′Little has changed for our model: Chitipa United 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–30–26
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Chitipa United 1–0 MAFCO
22′Z. Manda scores for Chitipa United on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–6
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Chitipa United win: 44% at kick-off, 76% now
43′We said Chitipa United at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–17–4
45′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 79–17–4
45′HALF-TIME Chitipa United 1–0 MAFCO
46′SECOND HALF Chitipa United 1–0 MAFCO
49′⚽ GOAL · 7' Chitipa United 1–0 MAFCO · Z. Manda
58′We said Chitipa United at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–15–2
78′We said Chitipa United at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 1–0 · 91–9–0
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Chitipa United win: 44% at kick-off, 91% now
85′⚽ GOAL · 83' Chitipa United 2–0 MAFCO
FTFULL TIME Chitipa United 2–0 MAFCO
FTChitipa United 2–0 MAFCO · Chitipa United win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Chitipa United win44%

Draw30%

MAFCO win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chitipa united winPublished 10 Oct 13:47

44% The market47%

Us44%

~~Market~~47%

We make Chitipa United a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chitipa united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chitipa United win	44%	47%	−3
Draw	30%	31%	−1
MAFCO win	26%	22%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	33%	35%	−3
Both teams to score	39%	41%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	60%	60%	0
Over 3.5 goals	15%	18%	−4
Chitipa United or draw	74%	78%	−4
Chitipa United clean sheet	44%	–	–
MAFCO clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.5%

0123450 13.6 10.9 4.6 1 15.5 13.2 5.4 2 9.3 7.7 3.2 3 3.7 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chitipa United down, MAFCO across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,320 Super League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.2% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chitipa United at home: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). MAFCO away: 0.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Chitipa United, 0.83 for MAFCO. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~MAF 2–0 CHI · CHI 2–1 MAF · MAF 1–0 CHI · CHI 0–0 MAF

Form · last six in Super League

CHITIPA UNITED

WWLWDD2–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

MAFCO

WLLDLL2–0 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Blue Eagles	15	+8	31
2	Nyasa Big Bullets	15	+13	30
3	Be Forward Wanderers	15	+16	29
4	Silver Strikers	15	+13	29
5	Masters FC	15	+1	22
6	Moyale Barracks	15	−1	21
7	Chitipa United	15	−5	21
8	Mitundu Baptist	15	−1	20
9	Red Lions	15	−1	20
10	CIVO United	15	−4	20
11	Ekhaya	15	+1	18
12	Dedza Dynamos	15	−10	15
13	Karonga United	15	−9	14
14	MAFCO	15	−5	13
15	Kamuzu Barracks	15	−7	12
16	Creck	15	−9	10