Ohrid v FK Rabotnicki prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Ohrid 1–0 FK Rabotnicki OHRID WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Ohrid win~~56%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.286

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.391

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ohrid are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ohrid 56%, draw 22%, FK Rabotnicki 21%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Ohrid v FK RabotnickiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ohrid win56%

Draw22%

FK Rabotnicki win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ohrid

FK Rabotnicki

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Second League (Macedonia)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ohrid winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

56% The market49%

Us56%

~~Market~~49%

We make Ohrid a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ohrid v FK Rabotnicki~~1.82 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 18~~1 v 2

~~The market · Ohrid win~~49% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ohrid win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ohrid win	56%	49%	+7
Draw	22%	27%	−5
FK Rabotnicki win	21%	24%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	52%	46%	+6
Both teams to score	50%	50%	0
Over 1.5 goals	75%	70%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	31%	28%	+3
Ohrid or draw	79%	76%	+3
Ohrid clean sheet	39%	–	–
FK Rabotnicki clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.6%

0123450 6.9 6.7 3.2 1 11.6 10.2 5.1 2 9.7 8.9 4.3 3 5.9 5.4 2.6 4 2.9 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ohrid down, FK Rabotnicki across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,288 Second League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.4% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Ohrid at home: 3.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). FK Rabotnicki away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Ohrid, 0.97 for FK Rabotnicki. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 29 Aug

OHRID

WWLWDW3–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–0

FK RABOTNICKI

WLWWWW1–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 5–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ohrid	8	+12	19
2	FK Rabotnicki	7	+12	18
3	Pelister	8	+11	18
4	Akademija Pandev	7	+11	15
5	Teteks	8	+3	12
6	Belasica	8	+2	12
7	Kamjani	8	−3	11
8	Makedonija GjP	8	−2	10
9	Kozuv Gevgelija	8	−5	9
10	Novaci	8	−3	8
11	Detonit Plachkovica	8	−4	8
12	Gorno Lisiče	8	−1	6
13	Osogovo	8	−7	3
14	Shkupi 1927	8	−26	0