Novaci v Pelister prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Novaci 0–2 Pelister PELISTER WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pelister win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.377

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pelister are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Novaci 22%, draw 28%, Pelister 50%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Novaci v PelisterBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Novaci win22%

Draw28%

Pelister win50%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Novaci

Pelister

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Second League (Macedonia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Pelister	8	+11	18
10	Novaci	8	−3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pelister winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Pelister a 50% chance to win. The model expects 0.7–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Novaci v Pelister~~0.71 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 8 v 18~~10 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Novaci win	22%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Pelister win	50%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Novaci or draw	50%	–	–
Novaci clean sheet	29%	–	–
Pelister clean sheet	52%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 17.9%

0123450 14.7 17.9 11.1 5.1 1 9.6 10.6 6.8 2.9 2 3.7 4.3 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Novaci down, Pelister across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,288 Second League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.4% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Novaci at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Pelister away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.71 goals for Novaci, 1.29 for Pelister. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NOV 1–3 PEL · PEL 4–0 NOV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 29 Aug

NOVACI

DLWWLD0–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 0–0

PELISTER

WWWWDW1–0 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ohrid	8	+12	19
2	FK Rabotnicki	7	+12	18
3	Pelister	8	+11	18
4	Akademija Pandev	7	+11	15
5	Teteks	8	+3	12
6	Belasica	8	+2	12
7	Kamjani	8	−3	11
8	Makedonija GjP	8	−2	10
9	Kozuv Gevgelija	8	−5	9
10	Novaci	8	−3	8
11	Detonit Plachkovica	8	−4	8
12	Gorno Lisiče	8	−1	6
13	Osogovo	8	−7	3
14	Shkupi 1927	8	−26	0