Gorno Lisiče v Novaci prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Gorno Lisiče 0–0 Novaci GORNO LISIČE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gorno Lisiče win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.829

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gorno Lisiče are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gorno Lisiče 47%, draw 27%, Novaci 26%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Gorno Lisiče v NovaciBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gorno Lisiče win47%

Draw27%

Novaci win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gorno Lisiče

Novaci

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Second League (Macedonia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Novaci	7	−3	7
12	Gorno Lisiče	7	−1	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gorno lisiče winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Gorno Lisiče a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gorno Lisiče v Novaci~~1.38 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 7~~12 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gorno Lisiče win	47%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Novaci win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Gorno Lisiče or draw	74%	–	–
Gorno Lisiče clean sheet	41%	–	–
Novaci clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.3%

0123450 10.8 9.9 4.4 1 14.3 11.6 5.5 2 9.3 8.0 3.7 3 4.4 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gorno Lisiče down, Novaci across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,281 Second League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.5% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Gorno Lisiče at home: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 3). Novaci away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Gorno Lisiče, 0.91 for Novaci. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 22 Aug

GORNO LISIČE

LLWLDD0–1 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

NOVACI

LDLWWL0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ohrid	7	+10	16
2	Pelister	7	+8	15
3	FK Rabotnicki	6	+8	15
4	Akademija Pandev	6	+11	14
5	Belasica	7	+2	11
6	Makedonija GjP	7	0	10
7	Kamjani	7	−3	10
8	Teteks	7	+1	9
9	Detonit Plachkovica	7	−2	8
10	Kozuv Gevgelija	7	−5	8
11	Novaci	7	−3	7
12	Gorno Lisiče	7	−1	5
13	Osogovo	7	−4	3
14	Shkupi 1927	7	−22	0