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Model 1.1

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Belasica v Pelister

Belasica
0–0Full time
Pelister

Second League · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47
Belasica 0–0 Pelister PELISTER WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Pelister win37%
The market said55%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.695
The market’s Brier score0.865

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Belasica win31%
Draw32%
Pelister win37%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Belasica

Pelister

22Days since last match22
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Pelister6+814
5Belasica6+210

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pelister winPublished 11 Oct 17:22
37% The market55%
Us37%
Market55%

We make Pelister a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55%60% 9 OCT 06:1911 OCT 04:04
Our probability · pelister win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Belasica win31%18%+13
Draw32%27%+5
Pelister win37%55%−18
Over 2.5 goals28%41%−13
Both teams to score33%43%−11
Over 1.5 goals52%65%−13
Over 3.5 goals12%21%−9
Belasica or draw63%45%+18
Belasica clean sheet40%––
Pelister clean sheet46%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.0%
0123450 18.0 16.3 7.6 2.7 1 13.4 11.1 5.6 2 5.8 5.3 2.6 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Belasica down, Pelister across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting2.25
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsPEL 3–0 BEL · BEL 0–2 PEL · BEL 2–1 PEL · PEL 1–0 BEL

Form · last six in Second League

BELASICA

WWDDDD1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–0

PELISTER

DDWWWW1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Ohrid7+1016
2FK Rabotnicki6+815
3Akademija Pandev6+1114
4Pelister6+814
5Belasica6+210
6Makedonija GjP7010
7Kamjani7−310
8Teteks7+19
9Detonit Plachkovica7−28
10Kozuv Gevgelija7−58
11Novaci7−37
12Gorno Lisiče7−15
13Osogovo7−43
14Shkupi 19277−220

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.