Belasica v Makedonija GjP prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Belasica 1–1 Makedonija GjP BELASICA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGUNDER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Belasica win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.604

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Belasica just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Belasica 41%, draw 38%, Makedonija GjP 22%. Over 2.5 goals 19%, both teams to score 24%.

The AI’s read on Belasica v Makedonija GjPBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Belasica win41%

Draw38%

Makedonija GjP win22%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Belasica

Makedonija GjP

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League (Macedonia)

Last match: 17 Oct · Second League (Macedonia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Belasica	8	+2	12
8	Makedonija GjP	8	−2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · belasica winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Belasica a 41% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–0.6, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 26%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Belasica v Makedonija GjP~~0.89 – 0.55

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D6 L0 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 10~~6 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Belasica win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Belasica win	41%	–	–
Draw	38%	–	–
Makedonija GjP win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	19%	–	–
Both teams to score	24%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	41%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	7%	–	–
Belasica or draw	78%	–	–
Belasica clean sheet	59%	–	–
Makedonija GjP clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 25.7%

0123450 25.7 12.7 3.5 1 20.2 10.2 3.2 2 8.9 5.0 3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Belasica down, Makedonija GjP across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,288 Second League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.4% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Belasica at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Makedonija GjP away: 0.50 scored, 0.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.89 goals for Belasica, 0.55 for Makedonija GjP. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~MAK 0–0 BEL · BEL 0–4 MAK · BEL 2–2 MAK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 29 Aug

BELASICA

DDDDDD1–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–0

MAKEDONIJA GJP

LLWLWL0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ohrid	8	+12	19
2	FK Rabotnicki	7	+12	18
3	Pelister	8	+11	18
4	Akademija Pandev	7	+11	15
5	Teteks	8	+3	12
6	Belasica	8	+2	12
7	Kamjani	8	−3	11
8	Makedonija GjP	8	−2	10
9	Kozuv Gevgelija	8	−5	9
10	Novaci	8	−3	8
11	Detonit Plachkovica	8	−4	8
12	Gorno Lisiče	8	−1	6
13	Osogovo	8	−7	3
14	Shkupi 1927	8	−26	0