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Tikveš v Bregalnica Štip

Tikveš

3–0Full time

Bregalnica Štip

First League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:46

Tikveš 3–0 Bregalnica Štip TIKVEŠ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tikveš win~~63%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.202

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.177

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tikveš win at 63%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tikveš 63% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 66–19–15
1′KICK-OFF Tikveš v Bregalnica Štip
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Tikveš 1–0 Bregalnica Štip
2′⚽ GOAL · 3' Tikveš 1–0 Bregalnica Štip
11′Tikveš find the net on 3′. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–11–5
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Tikveš win: 63% at kick-off, 84% now
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Tikveš 2–0 Bregalnica Štip
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Tikveš 2–0 Bregalnica Štip
21′A goal for Tikveš on 16′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Tikveš win: 63% at kick-off, 95% now
37′We said Tikveš at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
45′HALF-TIME Tikveš 2–0 Bregalnica Štip
45′SECOND HALF Tikveš 2–0 Bregalnica Štip
63′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Bregalnica Štip
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Tikveš
68′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Tikveš
81′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Tikveš
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Tikveš 3–0 Bregalnica Štip
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Tikveš 3–0 Bregalnica Štip
FTFULL TIME Tikveš 3–0 Bregalnica Štip
FTTikveš 3–0 Bregalnica Štip · Tikveš win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tikveš win63%

Draw20%

Bregalnica Štip win16%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Tikveš

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Stevkovski

2 F. Camara

4 I. Fall

6 B. Ramadani

11 N. Sylla

15 T. Nikolovski

21 A. Varelovski

22 T. Lawal

23 O. Wisdom

34 K. Ackovski

74 Renatinho

Coach · Oliver Bogatinov

Substitutes

12 · A. Trajkovski

3 · S. Sekirski

7 · Lucianinho

8 · O. Rakipi

17 · G. Spasov

24 · J. Popzlatanov

25 · S. Chajani

32 · N. Vlajkovic

44 · A. Dimeski

80 · M. Elmas

99 · A. Lukman Oluvadamilare

Bregalnica Štip

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Jasar

3 A. Nikolovski

6 R. Temelkov

7 M. Stojanov

8 M. Maksimov

10 I. Nikolov

11 I. Gligorov

14 V. Velkoski

17 D. Tasev

22 S. Kocev

25 M. Angelov

Coach · Prosev Mijalce

Substitutes

52 · N. Filevski

98 · M. Milenkovski

9 · D. Miholov

13 · M. Lemos

15 · B. Hadzi-Kimov

18 · B. Rajkov

19 · D. Stojanov

21 · L. Georgiev

23 · F. Aleksovski

24 · K. Stojkoski

35 · N. Mascoe

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Tikveš

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Stevkovski

2 F. Camara

4 I. Fall

6 B. Ramadani

11 N. Sylla

15 T. Nikolovski

21 A. Varelovski

22 T. Lawal

23 O. Wisdom

34 K. Ackovski

74 Renatinho

Coach · Oliver Bogatinov

Substitutes

12 · A. Trajkovski

3 · S. Sekirski

7 · Lucianinho

8 · O. Rakipi

17 · G. Spasov

24 · J. Popzlatanov

25 · S. Chajani

32 · N. Vlajkovic

44 · A. Dimeski

80 · M. Elmas

99 · A. Lukman Oluvadamilare

Bregalnica Štip

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Jasar

3 A. Nikolovski

6 R. Temelkov

7 M. Stojanov

8 M. Maksimov

10 I. Nikolov

11 I. Gligorov

14 V. Velkoski

17 D. Tasev

22 S. Kocev

25 M. Angelov

Coach · Prosev Mijalce

Substitutes

52 · N. Filevski

98 · M. Milenkovski

9 · D. Miholov

13 · M. Lemos

15 · B. Hadzi-Kimov

18 · B. Rajkov

19 · D. Stojanov

21 · L. Georgiev

23 · F. Aleksovski

24 · K. Stojkoski

35 · N. Mascoe

Our number · tikveš winPublished 10 Oct 11:13

63% The market66%

Us63%

~~Market~~66%

We make Tikveš a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tikveš win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tikveš win	63%	66%	−3
Draw	20%	21%	−1
Bregalnica Štip win	16%	13%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	61%	56%	+5
Both teams to score	54%	50%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	82%	77%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	40%	36%	+4
Tikveš or draw	84%	87%	−3
Tikveš clean sheet	38%	–	–
Bregalnica Štip clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.4%

0123450 5.3 4.2 2.3 1 8.9 9.2 4.4 2 9.4 8.9 4.4 3 6.8 6.3 3.1 4 4.0 3.7 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Tikveš down, Bregalnica Štip across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 996 First League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.5% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tikveš at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Bregalnica Štip away: 0.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.26 goals for Tikveš, 0.99 for Bregalnica Štip. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~TIK 2–1 BRE · BRE 2–1 TIK · TIK 2–1 BRE · BRE 0–0 TIK

Form · last six in First League

TIKVEŠ

LDDWDD0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 0–0

BREGALNICA ŠTIP

LWLLDW1–4 · 3–0 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shkendija	8	+12	19
2	Struga	8	+14	17
3	Vardar Skopje	8	+6	14
4	Tikveš	8	+10	13
5	Shkëndija Haraçinë	8	−3	13
6	Bregalnica Štip	8	−2	10
7	Sileks	8	+3	9
8	Aresimi	8	−13	8
9	Bashkimi Kumanovo	8	−18	4
10	Skopje	8	−9	3