Tikveš v Bashkimi Kumanovo prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

TikvešDrawBashkimi Kumanovo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Tikveš 74%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tikveš are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tikveš 74%, draw 15%, Bashkimi Kumanovo 10%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Tikveš v Bashkimi KumanovoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Tikveš win74%

Draw15%

Bashkimi Kumanovo win10%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tikveš

Bashkimi Kumanovo

6Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · First League (Macedonia)

Last match: 18 Oct · First League (Macedonia)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Tikveš	10	+13	17
9	Bashkimi Kumanovo	10	−20	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tikveš winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 20 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

74% The market85%

Us74%

~~Market~~85%

We make Tikveš a 74% chance to win. The market has them at 85%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.8–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tikveš v Bashkimi Kumanovo~~2.84 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D4 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 7~~4 v 9

~~The market · Tikveš win~~85% · ours 74%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tikveš win The market, margin stripped

Published at 75%, 74% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 85% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tikveš win	74%	85%	−11
Draw	15%	10%	+5
Bashkimi Kumanovo win	10%	5%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	70%	70%	0
Both teams to score	54%	37%	+17
Over 1.5 goals	87%	86%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	50%	51%	−1
Tikveš or draw	90%	95%	−5
Tikveš clean sheet	42%	–	–
Bashkimi Kumanovo clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.4%

0123450 3.5 2.3 1 7.1 7.0 3.0 2 9.4 8.2 3.7 3 8.3 7.1 3.2 4 5.9 5.0 2.2 5 3.6 3.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Tikveš down, Bashkimi Kumanovo across0–5 goals a side shown (90.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,009 First League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tikveš at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Bashkimi Kumanovo away: 0.50 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.84 goals for Tikveš, 0.89 for Bashkimi Kumanovo. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BAS 0–5 TIK · BAS 2–2 TIK · TIK 3–0 BAS · BAS 3–1 TIK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 30 Aug

TIKVEŠ

DWDDWD1–1 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 1–1

BASHKIMI KUMANOVO

LWDLWL1–2 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shkendija	11	+14	24
2	Struga	11	+19	23
3	Vardar Skopje	11	+8	21
4	Tikveš	10	+13	17
5	Sileks	11	+8	16
6	Shkëndija Haraçinë	11	−7	14
7	Bregalnica Štip	10	−6	10
8	Aresimi	10	−13	10
9	Bashkimi Kumanovo	10	−20	7
10	Skopje	11	−16	3