Struga v Skopje prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

Struga 4–0 Skopje STRUGA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Struga win~~74%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.109

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.074

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Struga win at 74%.
1′Much as we predicted: Struga was 74% before kick-off and our model makes it 73% now. 0–0 · 73–19–8
1′KICK-OFF Struga v Skopje
11′We published Struga at 74%. Our model now makes it 92%. 1–0 · 92–7–2
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Struga 1–0 Skopje
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Struga win: 74% at kick-off, 92% now
12′Struga find the net on 11′. 1–0. 1–0 · 92–7–2
17′We published Struga at 74%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Struga 2–0 Skopje
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Struga win: 74% at kick-off, 98% now
18′A goal for Struga on 17′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
29′We published Struga at 74%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Struga 3–0 Skopje
31′Struga score on 30′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
31′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
45′SECOND HALF Struga 3–0 Skopje
46′HALF-TIME Struga 3–0 Skopje
59′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
59′Struga find the net on 59′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Struga 4–0 Skopje
90′Full time, 4–0. We called Struga at 74% — that one lands. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Struga 4–0 Skopje
FTStruga 4–0 Skopje · Struga win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Struga are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Struga 74%, draw 18%, Skopje 8%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Struga v SkopjeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Struga win74%

Draw18%

Skopje win8%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Struga

Skopje

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · First League (Macedonia)

Last match: 18 Oct · First League (Macedonia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Struga	10	+15	20
10	Skopje	10	−12	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · struga winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

74% The market78%

Us74%

~~Market~~78%

We make Struga a 74% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Struga v Skopje~~2.18 – 0.52

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 28 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 20 v 3~~2 v 10

~~The market · Struga win~~78% · ours 74%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Struga win The market, margin stripped

Published at 72%, 74% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Struga win	74%	78%	−4
Draw	18%	15%	+3
Skopje win	8%	7%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	50%	61%	−11
Both teams to score	35%	40%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	74%	82%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	29%	40%	−11
Struga or draw	92%	93%	−1
Struga clean sheet	60%	–	–
Skopje clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 15.3%

0123450 8.0 3.4 1 14.5 7.9 2.1 2 15.3 7.6 2.2 3 11.0 5.4 4 6.3 2.9 5 3.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Struga down, Skopje across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,007 First League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.71 goals a meeting; 1 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Struga at home: 2.50 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Skopje away: 0.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.18 goals for Struga, 0.52 for Skopje. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.71

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~SKO 1–1 STR · SKO 1–1 STR · SKO 1–1 STR · STR 3–0 SKO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 28 Aug

STRUGA

WWDWLW4–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 6–0 · 1–2 · 2–0

SKOPJE

DLLLLL0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shkendija	10	+14	23
2	Struga	10	+15	20
3	Vardar Skopje	10	+8	20
4	Tikveš	10	+13	17
5	Sileks	11	+8	16
6	Shkëndija Haraçinë	11	−7	14
7	Bregalnica Štip	10	−6	10
8	Aresimi	10	−13	10
9	Bashkimi Kumanovo	10	−20	7
10	Skopje	10	−12	3