Skopje v Vardar Skopje prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Skopje 1–2 Vardar Skopje VARDAR SKOPJE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vardar Skopje win~~58%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.267

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.143

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vardar Skopje win at 58%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Vardar Skopje 58% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 15–26–59
3′Little has changed for our model: Vardar Skopje 58% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 15–26–59
25′We said Vardar Skopje at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–0 · 48–30–23
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Vardar Skopje win: 58% at kick-off, 53% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Vardar Skopje win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Skopje win 15%)
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Vardar Skopje win: 58% at kick-off, 23% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Skopje win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Vardar Skopje win 23%)
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Vardar Skopje win: 58% at kick-off, 53% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Vardar Skopje win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Skopje win 15%)
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Vardar Skopje win: 58% at kick-off, 23% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Skopje win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Vardar Skopje win 23%)
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Vardar Skopje win: 58% at kick-off, 23% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Skopje win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Vardar Skopje win 23%)
40′V. Angelov scores for Skopje on 26′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 54–30–17
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Vardar Skopje win: 58% at kick-off, 17% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Vardar Skopje win: 58% at kick-off, 23% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Vardar Skopje win: 58% at kick-off, 17% now
42′V. Angelov scores for Skopje on 26′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 55–30–16
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Vardar Skopje win: 58% at kick-off, 23% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Vardar Skopje win: 58% at kick-off, 17% now
43′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Vardar Skopje
45′SECOND HALF Skopje 1–0 Vardar Skopje
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Vardar Skopje win: 58% at kick-off, 16% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Skopje win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Vardar Skopje win 16%)
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Skopje
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Skopje 1–1 Vardar Skopje · V. Angelov
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Skopje 1–1 Vardar Skopje
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Skopje · On: J. Papuli · Off: D. Poposki
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Vardar Skopje · On: B. Nikolov · Off: D. Castaneda
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Vardar Skopje · On: E. Spahiu · Off: Miguel Pires
82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Vardar Skopje
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Skopje
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Skopje · On: O. Berovikj · Off: M. Gordic
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Skopje 1–2 Vardar Skopje · G. Zakaric
91′⚽ GOAL · 93' Skopje 1–2 Vardar Skopje
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Skopje 1–2 Vardar Skopje
94′⚽ GOAL · 93' Skopje 1–2 Vardar Skopje
FTFULL TIME Skopje 1–2 Vardar Skopje
FTSkopje 1–2 Vardar Skopje · Vardar Skopje win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Skopje win15%

Draw26%

Vardar Skopje win58%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Line-ups

Skopje

Vardar Skopje

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Skopje

Vardar Skopje

18Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Vardar Skopje	8	+6	14
10	Skopje	8	−9	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Skopje

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Naumovski

6 J. Mecinovic

7 A. Bozinoski

8 G. Cvetkov

9 V. Angelov

15 D. Serafimov

20 K. Nikolovski

24 D. Trajcevski

30 M. Gordic

31 A. Adem

70 D. Poposki

Coach · Ivan Varadinovski

Substitutes

12 · A. Suljovikj

4 · J. Papuli

10 · V. Papaliski

11 · A. Cvetkovski

16 · D. Sekovski

21 · T. Grozdanovski

34 · S. Mladenovski

47 · S. Ristoski

77 · V. Brdarovski

90 · O. Berovikj

99 · N. Vlajkovic

Vardar Skopje

Formation not confirmed

95 D. Taleski

3 M. Manevski

4 M. Matic

5 F. Najdovski

6 D. Babunski

9 A. Omeragic

10 G. Zakaric

21 G. Jankulov

32 D. Castaneda

49 D. Danev

71 Miguel Pires

Coach · Miodrag Bozovic

Substitutes

99 · M. Velkovski

8 · B. Nikolov

14 · S. Diabate

17 · E. Spahiu

18 · N. Mishkovski

22 · D. Todorovski

27 · F. Cvetkovski

23 · F. Duranski

31 · I. Markovski

34 · I. Puleio

88 · N. Bosancic

Our number · vardar skopje winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

58% The market70%

Us58%

~~Market~~70%

We make Vardar Skopje a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.6–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · vardar skopje win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Skopje win	15%	10%	+5
Draw	26%	20%	+7
Vardar Skopje win	58%	70%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	37%	53%	−16
Both teams to score	35%	43%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	63%	75%	−11
Over 3.5 goals	18%	31%	−13
Skopje or draw	42%	30%	+11
Skopje clean sheet	23%	–	–
Vardar Skopje clean sheet	55%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 17.1%

0123450 12.9 17.1 13.3 7.1 3.0 1 6.6 10.7 7.6 3.9 2 2.4 3.5 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Skopje down, Vardar Skopje across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 998 First League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Skopje at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Vardar Skopje away: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.62 goals for Skopje, 1.55 for Vardar Skopje. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in First League

SKOPJE

LDDLLL0–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1

VARDAR SKOPJE

LWDWDW0–1 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shkendija	8	+12	19
2	Struga	8	+14	17
3	Tikveš	9	+13	16
4	Vardar Skopje	8	+6	14
5	Shkëndija Haraçinë	8	−3	13
6	Sileks	9	+3	10
7	Bregalnica Štip	9	−5	10
8	Aresimi	9	−13	9
9	Bashkimi Kumanovo	8	−18	4
10	Skopje	8	−9	3