Skopje v Shkendija prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Skopje 1–3 Shkendija SHKENDIJA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Shkendija win~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.268

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shkendija win at 58%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Shkendija 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 17–26–58
1′We said Shkendija at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 0–1 · 5–11–83
1′KICK-OFF Skopje v Shkendija
1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Skopje 0–1 Shkendija
1′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 1' Shkendija win: 58% at kick-off, 83% now
3′A goal for Shkendija on 2′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–12–83
8′We said Shkendija at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Skopje 0–2 Shkendija
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Shkendija win: 58% at kick-off, 95% now
9′Shkendija score on 9′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Shkendija
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Skopje
44′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 3–13–84
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Skopje 1–2 Shkendija
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Shkendija win: 58% at kick-off, 84% now
45′Skopje find the net on 44′. 1–2. 1–2 · 3–13–84
45′SECOND HALF Skopje 1–2 Shkendija
46′We said Shkendija at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 3–13–85
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Shkendija
47′HALF-TIME Skopje 1–2 Shkendija
51′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–2–98
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Skopje 1–3 Shkendija
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Shkendija win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
52′A goal for Shkendija on 52′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Shkendija
75′PENALTY MISSED · 74' Shkendija
77′We said Shkendija at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Shkendija
93′1–3 at the end. Our 58% on Shkendija comes in. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Skopje 1–3 Shkendija
FTSkopje 1–3 Shkendija · Shkendija win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shkendija are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Skopje 17%, draw 25%, Shkendija 58%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Skopje v ShkendijaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Skopje win17%

Draw25%

Shkendija win58%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

Line-ups

Skopje

Shkendija

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Skopje

Shkendija

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · First League (Macedonia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Shkendija	9	+12	20
10	Skopje	9	−10	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Skopje

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Naumovski

6 J. Mecinovic

7 A. Bozinoski

8 G. Cvetkov

9 V. Angelov

20 K. Nikolovski

24 D. Trajcevski

30 M. Gordic

31 A. Adem

70 D. Poposki

77 V. Brdarovski

Coach · Ivan Varadinovski

Substitutes

12 · A. Suljovikj

4 · J. Papuli

10 · V. Papaliski

15 · D. Serafimov

16 · D. Sekovski

21 · T. Grozdanovski

22 · A. Murdjeski

29 · F. Saliu

34 · S. Mladenovski

90 · O. Berovikj

99 · N. Vlajkovic

Shkendija

Formation not confirmed

24 B. Gaye

2 A. Trumci

8 Rafa

10 E. Krasniqi

11 A. Kryeziu

17 A. Zejnullai

23 B. Dimoski

26 A. Meljichi

29 F. Tamba

55 J. Manev

99 M. Gjorgjievski

Coach · Artim Polozani

Substitutes

25 · A. Amzai

30 · F. Ramani

7 · B. Ibraimi

9 · F. Ndzengue

18 · N. Ceka

19 · V. Krstevski

20 · L. Djeladini

21 · A. Isa

33 · A. Abdurahmani

77 · F. Ramadani

Our number · shkendija winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Shkendija a 58% chance to win. The model expects 0.7–1.7, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Skopje v Shkendija~~0.73 – 1.66

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 21 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 20~~10 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Skopje win	17%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Shkendija win	58%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Skopje or draw	42%	–	–
Skopje clean sheet	20%	–	–
Shkendija clean sheet	49%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.7%

0123450 10.6 14.7 12.2 6.9 3.1 1 6.3 11.1 8.4 4.6 2.0 2 2.7 4.1 3.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Skopje down, Shkendija across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,003 First League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Skopje at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Shkendija away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.73 goals for Skopje, 1.66 for Shkendija. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~0 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SHK 3–0 SKO · SKO 0–2 SHK · SKO 0–1 SHK · SHK 5–0 SKO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 21 Aug

SKOPJE

DDLLLL1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

SHKENDIJA

WWLDWD2–1 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Struga	10	+15	20
2	Shkendija	9	+12	20
3	Vardar Skopje	10	+8	20
4	Tikveš	9	+13	16
5	Shkëndija Haraçinë	10	−5	14
6	Sileks	9	+3	10
7	Bregalnica Štip	10	−6	10
8	Aresimi	9	−13	9
9	Bashkimi Kumanovo	9	−17	7
10	Skopje	9	−10	3