Sileks v Shkëndija Haraçinë prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:31

Sileks 2–0 Shkëndija Haraçinë SILEKS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sileks win~~60%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.243

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.191

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sileks win at 60%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sileks 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–25–15
1′KICK-OFF Sileks v Shkëndija Haraçinë
2′We said Sileks at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–11–4
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Sileks 1–0 Shkëndija Haraçinë
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Sileks win: 60% at kick-off, 85% now
3′Sileks score on 3′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 85–11–4
20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Shkëndija Haraçinë
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 85–12–3
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Shkëndija Haraçinë
45′SECOND HALF Sileks 1–0 Shkëndija Haraçinë
46′HALF-TIME Sileks 1–0 Shkëndija Haraçinë
52′We said Sileks at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Sileks 2–0 Shkëndija Haraçinë
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Sileks win: 60% at kick-off, 98% now
53′Sileks find the net on 52′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Sileks
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Shkëndija Haraçinë
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Sileks
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Shkëndija Haraçinë
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Sileks
76′We said Sileks at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Sileks win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
FTFULL TIME Sileks 2–0 Shkëndija Haraçinë
FTSileks 2–0 Shkëndija Haraçinë · Sileks win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sileks are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sileks 60%, draw 25%, Shkëndija Haraçinë 15%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Sileks v Shkëndija HaraçinëBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 05:16 · locked at kick-off

Sileks win60%

Draw25%

Shkëndija Haraçinë win15%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sileks

Shkëndija Haraçinë

5Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · First League (Macedonia)

Last match: 17 Oct · First League (Macedonia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Shkëndija Haraçinë	10	−5	14
6	Sileks	10	+6	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sileks winFirst published 17 Oct 05:16 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

60% The market65%

Us60%

~~Market~~65%

We make Sileks a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sileks v Shkëndija Haraçinë~~1.72 – 0.71

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 14~~6 v 5

~~The market · Sileks win~~65% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sileks win The market, margin stripped

Published at 57%, 60% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sileks win	60%	65%	−5
Draw	25%	22%	+3
Shkëndija Haraçinë win	15%	14%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	43%	52%	−9
Both teams to score	41%	47%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	70%	74%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	23%	31%	−8
Sileks or draw	85%	86%	−1
Sileks clean sheet	50%	–	–
Shkëndija Haraçinë clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.5%

0123450 10.0 5.9 2.4 1 14.5 11.1 3.8 2 12.6 8.7 3.2 3 7.3 5.0 4 3.3 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sileks down, Shkëndija Haraçinë across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,006 First League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sileks at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Shkëndija Haraçinë away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Sileks, 0.71 for Shkëndija Haraçinë. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SHK 1–1 SIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 28 Aug

SILEKS

LLDDDW0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–0

SHKËNDIJA HARAÇINË

WWWLDL2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shkendija	10	+14	23
2	Struga	10	+15	20
3	Vardar Skopje	10	+8	20
4	Tikveš	10	+13	17
5	Shkëndija Haraçinë	10	−5	14
6	Sileks	10	+6	13
7	Bregalnica Štip	10	−6	10
8	Aresimi	10	−13	10
9	Bashkimi Kumanovo	10	−20	7
10	Skopje	10	−12	3