Shkëndija Haraçinë v Tikveš prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Shkëndija HaraçinëDrawTikveš

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Tikveš 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tikveš are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shkëndija Haraçinë 28%, draw 28%, Tikveš 45%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Shkëndija Haraçinë v TikvešBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Shkëndija Haraçinë win28%

Draw28%

Tikveš win45%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shkëndija Haraçinë

Tikveš

8Days since last match12

Last match: 23 Oct · First League (Macedonia)

Last match: 19 Oct · First League (Macedonia)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Tikveš	10	+13	17
6	Shkëndija Haraçinë	11	−7	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tikveš winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Tikveš a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shkëndija Haraçinë v Tikveš~~1.05 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 17~~6 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shkëndija Haraçinë win	28%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Tikveš win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Shkëndija Haraçinë or draw	55%	–	–
Shkëndija Haraçinë clean sheet	25%	–	–
Tikveš clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.6 11.1 8.4 4.2 1 8.3 12.8 8.4 4.1 2 4.8 6.4 4.4 2.1 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shkëndija Haraçinë down, Tikveš across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,009 First League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shkëndija Haraçinë at home: 0.60 scored, 1.20 conceded a game (last 5). Tikveš away: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Shkëndija Haraçinë, 1.44 for Tikveš. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~TIK 0–1 SHK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 31 Aug

SHKËNDIJA HARAÇINË

WWLDLL1–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–2

TIKVEŠ

DWDDWD1–1 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shkendija	11	+14	24
2	Struga	11	+19	23
3	Vardar Skopje	11	+8	21
4	Tikveš	10	+13	17
5	Sileks	11	+8	16
6	Shkëndija Haraçinë	11	−7	14
7	Bregalnica Štip	10	−6	10
8	Aresimi	10	−13	10
9	Bashkimi Kumanovo	10	−20	7
10	Skopje	11	−16	3