Shkëndija Haraçinë v Struga prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56

Shkëndija Haraçinë 0–2 Struga STRUGA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Struga win~~48%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.407

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.396

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Struga win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Struga was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 24–28–48
1′KICK-OFF Shkëndija Haraçinë v Struga
10′Struga score on 9′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 8–16–76
10′We published Struga at 48%. Our model now makes it 76%. 0–1 · 8–16–76
10′⚽ GOAL · 9' Shkëndija Haraçinë 0–1 Struga
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Struga win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Struga
26′A red card for Shkëndija Haraçinë on 26′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 6–16–77
26′🟥 RED CARD · 26' Shkëndija Haraçinë
28′Struga find the net on 28′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
28′We published Struga at 48%. Our model now makes it 94%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Shkëndija Haraçinë 0–2 Struga
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Struga win: 48% at kick-off, 94% now
35′We published Struga at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
45′HALF-TIME Shkëndija Haraçinë 0–2 Struga
46′🟨 YELLOW · 27' E. Lichina · Shkëndija Haraçinë
46′SECOND HALF Shkëndija Haraçinë 0–2 Struga
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Struga win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
62′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–2 · 0–2–98
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Struga
80′We published Struga at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Shkëndija Haraçinë
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Shkëndija Haraçinë
FTFULL TIME Shkëndija Haraçinë 0–2 Struga
FTShkëndija Haraçinë 0–2 Struga · Struga win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Struga are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shkëndija Haraçinë 24%, draw 28%, Struga 48%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Shkëndija Haraçinë v StrugaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Shkëndija Haraçinë win24%

Draw28%

Struga win48%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 10

Line-ups

Shkëndija Haraçinë

Struga

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shkëndija Haraçinë

Struga

6Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · First League (Macedonia)

Last match: 12 Oct · First League (Macedonia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Struga	9	+13	17
5	Shkëndija Haraçinë	9	−3	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Shkëndija Haraçinë

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Stolevski

3 M. Todorov

5 M. Adili

6 E. Lichina

7 V. Kerim

8 A. Nuhija

9 D. Elezi

10 B. Demiri

14 A. Arizankoski

21 M. Todorov

33 R. Selmani

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · H. Velii

99 · B. Shukriji

4 · S. Rushiti

11 · A. Mehmed

19 · H. Dimov

20 · D. Adili

22 · E. Fazlagic

30 · N. Sarkoski

32 · A. Jashari

70 · M. Simonovski

Struga

Formation not confirmed

44 V. Vasilev

2 A. Rochi

5 L. Rama

17 P. Fall

20 A. Aliji

10 B. Bojku

94 L. Diako

28 Q. Ismajli

11 B. Shabani

9 H. Agamah

14 M. Radeski

Coach · Bledi Shkembi

Substitutes

1 · A. Jovcevski

22 · D. K. Akinlosotu

30 · E. Belica

59 · A. Demiri

7 · A. Vosha

8 · A. Zendelovski

15 · A. Demiri

27 · M. Hamza

29 · H. Maleski

Our number · struga winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:41 · locked at kick-off

48% The market49%

Us48%

~~Market~~49%

We make Struga a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.9–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shkëndija Haraçinë v Struga~~0.90 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 17~~5 v 2

~~The market · Struga win~~49% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Struga win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shkëndija Haraçinë win	24%	23%	+1
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Struga win	48%	49%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	41%	46%	−5
Both teams to score	44%	50%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	68%	70%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	26%	−5
Shkëndija Haraçinë or draw	52%	51%	+1
Shkëndija Haraçinë clean sheet	25%	–	–
Struga clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.2%

0123450 11.0 13.2 9.7 4.7 1 8.3 12.7 8.4 4.0 2 4.2 5.5 3.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shkëndija Haraçinë down, Struga across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,001 First League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shkëndija Haraçinë at home: 0.75 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 4). Struga away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.90 goals for Shkëndija Haraçinë, 1.42 for Struga. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~STR 3–0 SHK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 22 Aug

SHKËNDIJA HARAÇINË

LWWWLD0–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1

STRUGA

LWWDWL1–2 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 6–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shkendija	9	+12	20
2	Struga	9	+13	17
3	Vardar Skopje	9	+7	17
4	Tikveš	9	+13	16
5	Shkëndija Haraçinë	9	−3	14
6	Sileks	9	+3	10
7	Bregalnica Štip	9	−5	10
8	Aresimi	9	−13	9
9	Bashkimi Kumanovo	9	−17	7
10	Skopje	9	−10	3