Shkëndija Haraçinë v Shkendija prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Shkëndija Haraçinë 1–1 Shkendija SHKENDIJA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Shkendija win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.863

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shkendija win at 52%.
1′KICK-OFF Shkëndija Haraçinë v Shkendija
2′Much as we predicted: Shkendija was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 22–25–53
4′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Shkendija
21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Shkëndija Haraçinë
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Shkëndija Haraçinë
31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Shkëndija Haraçinë 0–1 Shkendija
39′30′ and it is 0–1: Shkendija have scored. 0–1 · 5–16–79
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Shkendija
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Shkendija win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Shkendija win: 52% at kick-off, 49% now
40′30′ and it is 0–1: Shkendija have scored. 0–1 · 5–16–79
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Shkendija win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Shkendija win: 52% at kick-off, 49% now
45′HALF-TIME Shkëndija Haraçinë 0–1 Shkendija
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Shkendija win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
46′SECOND HALF Shkëndija Haraçinë 0–1 Shkendija
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Shkendija win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Shkendija
63′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Shkendija
72′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Shkendija · On: V. Krstevski · Off: A. Kryeziu
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Shkëndija Haraçinë 1–1 Shkendija
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Shkëndija Haraçinë
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Shkëndija Haraçinë 1–2 Shkendija
90′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Shkëndija Haraçinë
90′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Shkëndija Haraçinë · On: D. Adili · Off: A. Nuhija
FTFULL TIME Shkëndija Haraçinë 1–1 Shkendija
FTShkëndija Haraçinë 1–1 Shkendija · Shkendija win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Shkëndija Haraçinë win22%

Draw26%

Shkendija win52%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

Line-ups

Shkëndija Haraçinë

Shkendija

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Shkëndija Haraçinë

Shkendija

22Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shkendija	8	+12	19
5	Shkëndija Haraçinë	8	−3	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Shkëndija Haraçinë

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Stolevski

3 M. Todorov

5 M. Adili

6 E. Lichina

8 A. Nuhija

11 A. Mehmed

14 A. Arizankoski

21 M. Todorov

22 E. Fazlagic

30 N. Sarkoski

33 R. Selmani

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · S. Rushiti

7 · V. Kerim

9 · D. Elezi

12 · H. Velii

19 · H. Dimov

20 · D. Adili

32 · A. Jashari

70 · M. Simonovski

77 · N. Jusufi

99 · B. Shukriji

Shkendija

Formation not confirmed

24 B. Gaye

2 A. Trumci

5 D. Islami

10 E. Krasniqi

11 A. Kryeziu

17 A. Zejnullai

23 B. Dimoski

26 A. Meljichi

29 F. Tamba

55 J. Manev

99 M. Gjorgjievski

Coach · Artim Polozani

Substitutes

25 · A. Amzai

30 · F. Ramani

7 · B. Ibraimi

8 · Rafa

9 · F. Ndzengue

18 · N. Ceka

19 · V. Krstevski

20 · L. Djeladini

21 · A. Isa

33 · A. Abdurahmani

77 · F. Ramadani

Our number · shkendija winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Shkendija a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shkëndija Haraçinë win	22%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Shkendija win	52%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Shkëndija Haraçinë or draw	48%	–	–
Shkëndija Haraçinë clean sheet	21%	–	–
Shkendija clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 8.9 11.8 9.7 5.3 2.3 1 7.0 12.0 8.8 4.8 2.1 2 3.7 5.5 4.2 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shkëndija Haraçinë down, Shkendija across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 998 First League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Shkëndija Haraçinë at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Shkendija away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.95 goals for Shkëndija Haraçinë, 1.62 for Shkendija. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in First League

SHKËNDIJA HARAÇINË

WLWWWL1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–2

SHKENDIJA

WWWLDW4–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shkendija	8	+12	19
2	Struga	8	+14	17
3	Tikveš	9	+13	16
4	Vardar Skopje	8	+6	14
5	Shkëndija Haraçinë	8	−3	13
6	Sileks	9	+3	10
7	Bregalnica Štip	9	−5	10
8	Aresimi	9	−13	9
9	Bashkimi Kumanovo	8	−18	4
10	Skopje	8	−9	3