Bregalnica Štip v Vardar Skopje prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Bregalnica Štip 0–1 Vardar Skopje VARDAR SKOPJE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Vardar Skopje win~~56%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.288

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.249

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vardar Skopje win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: Vardar Skopje was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 20–24–56
1′KICK-OFF Bregalnica Štip v Vardar Skopje
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Bregalnica Štip
24′We published Vardar Skopje at 56%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 6–14–80
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Bregalnica Štip 0–1 Vardar Skopje
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Vardar Skopje win: 56% at kick-off, 80% now
25′Vardar Skopje find the net on 24′. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–14–81
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 5–14–81
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Bregalnica Štip
45′HALF-TIME Bregalnica Štip 0–1 Vardar Skopje
45′SECOND HALF Bregalnica Štip 0–1 Vardar Skopje
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Vardar Skopje
62′We published Vardar Skopje at 56%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Vardar Skopje
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Vardar Skopje win: 56% at kick-off, 86% now
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Bregalnica Štip
76′We published Vardar Skopje at 56%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
84′We published Vardar Skopje at 56%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Vardar Skopje win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Vardar Skopje
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Vardar Skopje
93′Full time, 0–1. We called Vardar Skopje at 56% — that one lands. 0–1 · 0–0–100
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Vardar Skopje
FTFULL TIME Bregalnica Štip 0–1 Vardar Skopje
FTBregalnica Štip 0–1 Vardar Skopje · Vardar Skopje win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vardar Skopje are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bregalnica Štip 20%, draw 24%, Vardar Skopje 56%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Bregalnica Štip v Vardar SkopjeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bregalnica Štip win20%

Draw24%

Vardar Skopje win56%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

Line-ups

Bregalnica Štip

Vardar Skopje

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bregalnica Štip

Vardar Skopje

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · First League (Macedonia)

Last match: 11 Oct · First League (Macedonia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Vardar Skopje	9	+7	17
7	Bregalnica Štip	9	−5	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bregalnica Štip

Formation not confirmed

52 N. Filevski

3 A. Nikolovski

5 M. Angelov

7 M. Stojanov

8 M. Maksimov

10 I. Nikolov

11 I. Gligorov

14 V. Velkoski

18 B. Rajkov

22 S. Kocev

24 K. Stojkoski

Coach · Prosev Mijalce

Substitutes

1 · A. Jasar

98 · M. Milenkovski

9 · D. Miholov

13 · M. Lemos

15 · B. Hadzi-Kimov

16 · A. Velkov

17 · D. Tasev

19 · D. Stojanov

21 · L. Georgiev

23 · F. Aleksovski

Vardar Skopje

Formation not confirmed

95 D. Taleski

4 M. Matic

5 F. Najdovski

6 D. Babunski

8 B. Nikolov

9 A. Omeragic

10 G. Zakaric

21 G. Jankulov

27 F. Cvetkovski

32 D. Castaneda

71 Miguel Pires

Coach · Miodrag Bozovic

Substitutes

99 · M. Velkovski

3 · M. Manevski

14 · S. Diabate

17 · E. Spahiu

18 · N. Mishkovski

22 · D. Todorovski

23 · F. Duranski

31 · I. Markovski

34 · I. Puleio

49 · D. Danev

88 · N. Bosancic

Our number · vardar skopje winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

56% The market60%

Us56%

~~Market~~60%

We make Vardar Skopje a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bregalnica Štip v Vardar Skopje~~0.92 – 1.80

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 17~~7 v 3

~~The market · Vardar Skopje win~~60% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vardar Skopje win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bregalnica Štip win	20%	16%	+4
Draw	24%	24%	0
Vardar Skopje win	56%	60%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%	0
Both teams to score	49%	48%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	73%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	29%	0
Bregalnica Štip or draw	44%	40%	+4
Bregalnica Štip clean sheet	18%	–	–
Vardar Skopje clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.3%

0123450 7.9 11.3 10.3 6.2 3.0 1 5.9 11.2 9.0 5.3 2.5 2 3.1 5.0 4.2 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bregalnica Štip down, Vardar Skopje across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,001 First League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bregalnica Štip at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Vardar Skopje away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Bregalnica Štip, 1.80 for Vardar Skopje. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~VAR 2–0 BRE · BRE 0–3 VAR · VAR 2–0 BRE · BRE 0–0 VAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 21 Aug

BREGALNICA ŠTIP

WLLDWL3–0 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–3

VARDAR SKOPJE

WDWDWW4–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shkendija	9	+12	20
2	Struga	9	+13	17
3	Vardar Skopje	9	+7	17
4	Tikveš	9	+13	16
5	Shkëndija Haraçinë	9	−3	14
6	Sileks	9	+3	10
7	Bregalnica Štip	9	−5	10
8	Aresimi	9	−13	9
9	Bashkimi Kumanovo	9	−17	7
10	Skopje	9	−10	3