Bregalnica Štip v Shkendija prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Bregalnica ŠtipDrawShkendija

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Shkendija 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shkendija are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bregalnica Štip 21%, draw 24%, Shkendija 55%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Bregalnica Štip v ShkendijaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Bregalnica Štip win21%

Draw24%

Shkendija win55%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bregalnica Štip

Shkendija

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · First League (Macedonia)

Last match: 24 Oct · First League (Macedonia)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shkendija winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Shkendija a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bregalnica Štip v Shkendija~~0.99 – 1.81

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 24~~7 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bregalnica Štip win	21%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Shkendija win	55%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Bregalnica Štip or draw	45%	–	–
Bregalnica Štip clean sheet	18%	–	–
Shkendija clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 7.4 10.5 9.7 5.8 2.8 1 5.7 11.2 9.1 5.5 2.6 2 3.2 5.3 4.6 2.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bregalnica Štip down, Shkendija across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,009 First League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bregalnica Štip at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Shkendija away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Bregalnica Štip, 1.81 for Shkendija. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SHK 4–1 BRE · SHK 4–1 BRE · BRE 2–2 SHK · SHK 2–0 BRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 28 Aug

BREGALNICA ŠTIP

LLDWLL0–4 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–1

SHKENDIJA

LDWDWD1–3 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shkendija	11	+14	24
2	Struga	11	+19	23
3	Vardar Skopje	11	+8	21
4	Tikveš	10	+13	17
5	Sileks	11	+8	16
6	Shkëndija Haraçinë	11	−7	14
7	Bregalnica Štip	10	−6	10
8	Aresimi	10	−13	10
9	Bashkimi Kumanovo	10	−20	7
10	Skopje	11	−16	3