Bashkimi Kumanovo v Struga prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 16:32

Bashkimi Kumanovo 2–1 Struga STRUGA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Struga win~~64%

~~The market said~~79%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.165

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.505

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Struga win at 64%.
0′Much as we predicted: Struga was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 66% now. 0–0 · 15–19–66
1′KICK-OFF Bashkimi Kumanovo v Struga
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Bashkimi Kumanovo 0–1 Struga
25′⚽ GOAL · 26' Bashkimi Kumanovo 0–1 Struga
27′Struga find the net on 26′. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–12–84
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Struga win: 64% at kick-off, 84% now
28′We published Struga at 64%. Our model now makes it 84%. 0–1 · 4–12–84
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Struga win: 64% at kick-off, 84% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Struga win: 64% at kick-off, 84% now
29′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Bashkimi Kumanovo
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 4–12–84
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Struga win: 64% at kick-off, 84% now
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Bashkimi Kumanovo 1–1 Struga · L. Diako
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Struga win: 64% at kick-off, 84% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Struga win: 64% at kick-off, 57% now
33′⚽ GOAL · 34' Bashkimi Kumanovo 1–1 Struga
35′A goal for Bashkimi Kumanovo on 34′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 16–28–56
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Struga win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Struga win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
40′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Bashkimi Kumanovo
40′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Struga
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Struga win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Bashkimi Kumanovo 2–1 Struga · N. Orr
50′⚽ GOAL · 51' Bashkimi Kumanovo 2–1 Struga
63′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Struga
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Struga · On: A. Rochi · Off: A. Zendelovski
63′🟨 YELLOW · 64' H. Maleski · Struga
63′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bashkimi Kumanovo · On: B. Limani · Off: A. Stafa
63′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Struga
63′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Bashkimi Kumanovo
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Bashkimi Kumanovo · On: H. Saiti · Off: N. Orr
FTFULL TIME Bashkimi Kumanovo 2–1 Struga
FTBashkimi Kumanovo 2–1 Struga · Struga win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 14:01 · locked at kick-off

Bashkimi Kumanovo win16%

Draw20%

Struga win64%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 14:00

Line-ups

Bashkimi Kumanovo

Struga

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bashkimi Kumanovo

Struga

24Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Struga	8	+14	17
9	Bashkimi Kumanovo	8	−18	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Bashkimi Kumanovo

Formation not confirmed

30 B. Aliju

2 Y. Fawzi

4 G. Tenlep

6 F. Ismaili

7 L. Ribeiro

9 A. Da Silva Sanca

10 A. Murati

11 A. Mayimona

20 A. Stafa

33 H. Sumer

80 N. Orr

Coach · Muarem Muarem

Substitutes

96 · L. Stojkovski

5 · R. Asani

14 · B. Limani

16 · S. Erion

17 · C. Martinez

21 · T. Mirchevski

23 · X. Kapllanaj

24 · S. Ristovski

25 · E. Saiti

77 · H. Saiti

88 · B. Kurtishi

Struga

Formation not confirmed

44 V. Vasilev

5 L. Rama

7 A. Vosha

8 A. Zendelovski

9 H. Agamah

10 B. Bojku

14 M. Radeski

17 P. Fall

20 A. Aliji

27 M. Hamza

94 L. Diako

Coach · Bledi Shkembi

Substitutes

1 · A. Jovcevski

2 · A. Rochi

11 · B. Shabani

15 · A. Demiri

22 · D. K. Akinlosotu

28 · Q. Ismajli

29 · H. Maleski

30 · E. Belica

59 · A. Demiri

Our number · struga winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 14:01 · locked at kick-off

64% The market79%

Us64%

~~Market~~79%

We make Struga a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 79%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · struga win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 79% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bashkimi Kumanovo win	16%	7%	+8
Draw	20%	14%	+6
Struga win	64%	79%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	59%	62%	−3
Both teams to score	53%	39%	+14
Over 1.5 goals	81%	82%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	42%	−4
Bashkimi Kumanovo or draw	36%	21%	+15
Bashkimi Kumanovo clean sheet	13%	–	–
Struga clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.2%

0123450 5.5 9.3 10.2 7.4 4.2 2.11 4.0 9.4 9.1 6.5 3.6 2 2.2 4.3 4.3 3.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bashkimi Kumanovo down, Struga across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,000 First League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bashkimi Kumanovo at home: 1.17 scored, 3.17 conceded a game (last 6). Struga away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for Bashkimi Kumanovo, 2.20 for Struga. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~BAS 0–4 STR · STR 6–0 BAS · BAS 0–5 STR

Form · last six in First League

BASHKIMI KUMANOVO

LLLWDL0–1 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 1–4

STRUGA

WLWWDW1–0 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 6–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shkendija	9	+12	20
2	Struga	8	+14	17
3	Vardar Skopje	9	+7	17
4	Tikveš	9	+13	16
5	Shkëndija Haraçinë	9	−3	14
6	Sileks	9	+3	10
7	Bregalnica Štip	9	−5	10
8	Aresimi	9	−13	9
9	Bashkimi Kumanovo	8	−18	4
10	Skopje	9	−10	3