Bashkimi Kumanovo v Sileks prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Bashkimi Kumanovo 0–3 Sileks SILEKS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sileks win~~51%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.354

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.157

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sileks win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sileks 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 24–25–51
1′KICK-OFF Bashkimi Kumanovo v Sileks
10′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Sileks
13′We said Sileks at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 0–1 · 9–15–76
13′Sileks score on 13′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–15–76
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Bashkimi Kumanovo 0–1 Sileks
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Sileks win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Bashkimi Kumanovo
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Sileks
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 7–16–77
45′HALF-TIME Bashkimi Kumanovo 0–1 Sileks
45′SECOND HALF Bashkimi Kumanovo 0–1 Sileks
47′We said Sileks at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Bashkimi Kumanovo 0–2 Sileks
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Sileks win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
48′Sileks find the net on 48′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Sileks
76′We said Sileks at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 1–2 · 1–11–88
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Bashkimi Kumanovo 1–2 Sileks
77′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–11–88
77′A goal for Bashkimi Kumanovo on 77′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 1–11–88
79′GOAL DISALLOWED · 79' Bashkimi Kumanovo
82′We said Sileks at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
83′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Bashkimi Kumanovo · On: M. Januzi · Off: B. Limani
83′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Bashkimi Kumanovo · On: H. Saiti · Off: G. Tenlep
84′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sileks · On: M. Delimedjac · Off: I. Donov
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Bashkimi Kumanovo
90′0–3 at the end. Our 51% on Sileks comes in. 0–3 · 0–0–100
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Bashkimi Kumanovo 0–3 Sileks
92′A goal for Sileks on 90′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Bashkimi Kumanovo 0–3 Sileks
FTBashkimi Kumanovo 0–3 Sileks · Sileks win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sileks are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bashkimi Kumanovo 24%, draw 24%, Sileks 51%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Bashkimi Kumanovo v SileksBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bashkimi Kumanovo win24%

Draw24%

Sileks win51%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 10

Line-ups

Bashkimi Kumanovo

Sileks

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bashkimi Kumanovo

Sileks

6Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · First League (Macedonia)

Last match: 10 Oct · First League (Macedonia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Sileks	9	+3	10
9	Bashkimi Kumanovo	9	−17	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bashkimi Kumanovo

Formation not confirmed

30 B. Aliju

2 Y. Fawzi

4 G. Tenlep

6 F. Ismaili

7 L. Ribeiro

10 A. Murati

11 A. Mayimona

14 B. Limani

24 S. Ristovski

33 H. Sumer

80 N. Orr

Coach · Muarem Muarem

Substitutes

96 · L. Stojkovski

5 · R. Asani

8 · M. Januzi

17 · C. Martinez

19 · A. Ljubevski

21 · T. Mirchevski

23 · X. Kapllanaj

25 · E. Saiti

77 · H. Saiti

88 · B. Kurtishi

Sileks

Formation not confirmed

25 L. Djekov

5 G. Djekov

6 D. Angjeleski

8 N. Sero

9 E. Hasukic

16 I. Donov

23 K. Eftimov

29 I. Subert

44 E. Buturovic

88 B. Panovski

99 N. Manojlov

Coach · Aleksandar Vasoski

Substitutes

1 · D. Bozinovski

3 · M. Richkov

7 · A. Timovski

10 · M. Gjerasov

18 · F. Gjorgjievski

19 · A. Mishov

21 · L. Georgioski

22 · M. Delimedjac

71 · M. Talakov

77 · N. Bogdanovski

96 · D. Ilieski

Our number · sileks winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:41 · locked at kick-off

51% The market68%

Us51%

~~Market~~68%

We make Sileks a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bashkimi Kumanovo v Sileks~~1.13 – 1.77

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 10~~9 v 6

~~The market · Sileks win~~68% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sileks win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bashkimi Kumanovo win	24%	12%	+12
Draw	24%	20%	+4
Sileks win	51%	68%	−17
Over 2.5 goals	55%	58%	−3
Both teams to score	55%	50%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	37%	−4
Bashkimi Kumanovo or draw	49%	32%	+17
Bashkimi Kumanovo clean sheet	18%	–	–
Sileks clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.6 9.4 8.6 5.1 2.3 1 5.9 11.3 9.2 5.4 2.5 2 3.6 6.0 5.2 3.0 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bashkimi Kumanovo down, Sileks across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,003 First League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bashkimi Kumanovo at home: 1.50 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sileks away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Bashkimi Kumanovo, 1.77 for Sileks. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SIL 6–0 BAS · SIL 1–0 BAS · SIL 0–0 BAS · BAS 1–2 SIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 21 Aug

BASHKIMI KUMANOVO

LLWDLW0–3 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 1–4 · 2–1

SILEKS

LLLDDD1–4 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Struga	10	+15	20
2	Shkendija	9	+12	20
3	Vardar Skopje	10	+8	20
4	Tikveš	9	+13	16
5	Shkëndija Haraçinë	10	−5	14
6	Sileks	9	+3	10
7	Bregalnica Štip	10	−6	10
8	Aresimi	9	−13	9
9	Bashkimi Kumanovo	9	−17	7
10	Skopje	9	−10	3