Bashkimi Kumanovo v Aresimi prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Bashkimi KumanovoDrawAresimi

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Bashkimi Kumanovo 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bashkimi Kumanovo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bashkimi Kumanovo 40%, draw 25%, Aresimi 35%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Bashkimi Kumanovo v AresimiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Bashkimi Kumanovo win40%

Draw25%

Aresimi win35%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bashkimi Kumanovo

Aresimi

13Days since last match12

Last match: 18 Oct · First League (Macedonia)

Last match: 19 Oct · First League (Macedonia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Aresimi	10	−13	10
9	Bashkimi Kumanovo	10	−20	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bashkimi kumanovo winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Bashkimi Kumanovo a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bashkimi Kumanovo v Aresimi~~1.56 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 10~~9 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bashkimi Kumanovo win	40%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Aresimi win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Bashkimi Kumanovo or draw	65%	–	–
Bashkimi Kumanovo clean sheet	25%	–	–
Aresimi clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.1 6.6 5.2 2.6 1 7.2 11.5 7.7 3.8 2 6.1 8.3 5.9 2.9 3 3.2 4.4 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bashkimi Kumanovo down, Aresimi across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,009 First League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bashkimi Kumanovo at home: 1.50 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Aresimi away: 0.67 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Bashkimi Kumanovo, 1.44 for Aresimi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ARE 1–0 BAS · ARE 1–1 BAS · ARE 4–2 BAS · BAS 1–1 ARE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 29 Aug

BASHKIMI KUMANOVO

LWDLWL1–2 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 0–3

ARESIMI

DLDLDD0–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–6 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shkendija	11	+14	24
2	Struga	11	+19	23
3	Vardar Skopje	11	+8	21
4	Tikveš	10	+13	17
5	Sileks	11	+8	16
6	Shkëndija Haraçinë	11	−7	14
7	Bregalnica Štip	10	−6	10
8	Aresimi	10	−13	10
9	Bashkimi Kumanovo	10	−20	7
10	Skopje	11	−16	3