Home › Football › First League › Aresimi v Sileks

Aresimi v Sileks

Aresimi

1–1Full time

Sileks

First League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Aresimi 1–1 Sileks SILEKS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Sileks win~~47%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.843

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.909

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sileks win at 47%.
1′KICK-OFF Aresimi v Sileks
2′Little has changed for our model: Sileks 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 27–25–47
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Aresimi
45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Aresimi
45′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Sileks
45′HALF-TIME Aresimi 0–0 Sileks
46′SECOND HALF Aresimi 0–0 Sileks
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Aresimi 0–1 Sileks
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Aresimi 1–1 Sileks
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Aresimi
65′Aresimi find the net on 53′. 1–1. 1–1 · 19–54–28
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Sileks win: 47% at kick-off, 28% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Sileks win 28%)
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Aresimi
85′We said Sileks at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 6–86–8
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Sileks win: 47% at kick-off, 8% now
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Sileks
FTFULL TIME Aresimi 1–1 Sileks
FTAresimi 1–1 Sileks · Sileks win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Aresimi win27%

Draw26%

Sileks win47%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Aresimi

Formation not confirmed

99 D. Siljanovski

2 S. Dzemaili

3 F. Zuka

5 M. Goni

7 L. Kaba

15 F. Jusufi

16 M. Dardhishta

21 A. Aliti

29 I. Olaosebikan

30 D. Contreras

40 A. Iljazi

Coach · Veljdan Saliu

Substitutes

12 · R. Jankov

4 · S. Mustafa

9 · E. Gaye

10 · A. Gafuri

11 · A. Ramadani

19 · S. Memeti

20 · S. Ribaudo

22 · G. Doshev

23 · B. Velija

33 · M. Mislimi

55 · E. Gueye

Sileks

Formation not confirmed

25 L. Djekov

6 D. Angjeleski

7 A. Timovski

8 N. Sero

9 E. Hasukic

16 I. Donov

23 K. Eftimov

29 I. Subert

44 E. Buturovic

71 M. Talakov

99 N. Manojlov

Coach · Aleksandar Vasoski

Substitutes

1 · D. Bozinovski

12 · K. Gjorgjievski

3 · M. Richkov

5 · G. Djekov

10 · M. Gjerasov

18 · F. Gjorgjievski

19 · A. Mishov

21 · L. Georgioski

22 · M. Delimedjac

77 · N. Bogdanovski

96 · D. Ilieski

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Aresimi

Formation not confirmed

99 D. Siljanovski

2 S. Dzemaili

3 F. Zuka

5 M. Goni

7 L. Kaba

15 F. Jusufi

16 M. Dardhishta

21 A. Aliti

29 I. Olaosebikan

30 D. Contreras

40 A. Iljazi

Coach · Veljdan Saliu

Substitutes

12 · R. Jankov

4 · S. Mustafa

9 · E. Gaye

10 · A. Gafuri

11 · A. Ramadani

19 · S. Memeti

20 · S. Ribaudo

22 · G. Doshev

23 · B. Velija

33 · M. Mislimi

55 · E. Gueye

Sileks

Formation not confirmed

25 L. Djekov

6 D. Angjeleski

7 A. Timovski

8 N. Sero

9 E. Hasukic

16 I. Donov

23 K. Eftimov

29 I. Subert

44 E. Buturovic

71 M. Talakov

99 N. Manojlov

Coach · Aleksandar Vasoski

Substitutes

1 · D. Bozinovski

12 · K. Gjorgjievski

3 · M. Richkov

5 · G. Djekov

10 · M. Gjerasov

18 · F. Gjorgjievski

19 · A. Mishov

21 · L. Georgioski

22 · M. Delimedjac

77 · N. Bogdanovski

96 · D. Ilieski

Our number · sileks winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

47% The market55%

Us47%

~~Market~~55%

We make Sileks a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sileks win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aresimi win	27%	21%	+6
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Sileks win	47%	55%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	51%	55%	−4
Both teams to score	54%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	77%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	35%	−5
Aresimi or draw	53%	45%	+8
Aresimi clean sheet	21%	–	–
Sileks clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.6 9.8 8.1 4.4 1 7.0 12.0 8.9 4.8 2 4.3 6.5 5.1 2.7 3 2.6 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aresimi down, Sileks across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 996 First League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.5% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aresimi at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sileks away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Aresimi, 1.59 for Sileks. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SIL 0–1 ARE · SIL 1–3 ARE · ARE 0–1 SIL

Form · last six in First League

ARESIMI

WWDLDL1–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–6

SILEKS

WLLLDD3–0 · 1–4 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shkendija	8	+12	19
2	Struga	8	+14	17
3	Vardar Skopje	8	+6	14
4	Tikveš	8	+10	13
5	Shkëndija Haraçinë	8	−3	13
6	Bregalnica Štip	8	−2	10
7	Sileks	8	+3	9
8	Aresimi	8	−13	8
9	Bashkimi Kumanovo	8	−18	4
10	Skopje	8	−9	3