Aresimi v Bregalnica Štip prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AresimiDrawBregalnica Štip

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Aresimi 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aresimi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aresimi 45%, draw 27%, Bregalnica Štip 29%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Aresimi v Bregalnica ŠtipBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Aresimi win45%

Draw27%

Bregalnica Štip win29%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aresimi

Bregalnica Štip

6Days since last match8

Last match: 19 Oct · First League (Macedonia)

Last match: 17 Oct · First League (Macedonia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Bregalnica Štip	10	−6	10
8	Aresimi	10	−13	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aresimi winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 20 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Aresimi a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aresimi v Bregalnica Štip~~1.52 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 28 Aug~~W0 D4 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 10 v 10~~8 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Aresimi win

Published at 44%, 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aresimi win	45%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Bregalnica Štip win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Aresimi or draw	71%	–	–
Aresimi clean sheet	33%	–	–
Bregalnica Štip clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.3 7.4 4.7 1 9.9 12.3 6.7 2.7 2 7.9 8.7 5.0 3 4.1 4.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aresimi down, Bregalnica Štip across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,007 First League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aresimi at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Bregalnica Štip away: 0.67 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Aresimi, 1.16 for Bregalnica Štip. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~BRE 4–0 ARE · ARE 2–1 BRE · BRE 2–1 ARE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 28 Aug

ARESIMI

DLDLDD0–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–6 · 1–1 · 1–1

BREGALNICA ŠTIP

LLDWLL0–4 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shkendija	11	+14	24
2	Struga	11	+19	23
3	Vardar Skopje	11	+8	21
4	Tikveš	10	+13	17
5	Sileks	11	+8	16
6	Shkëndija Haraçinë	11	−7	14
7	Bregalnica Štip	10	−6	10
8	Aresimi	10	−13	10
9	Bashkimi Kumanovo	10	−20	7
10	Skopje	11	−16	3