Wiltz v US Rumelange prediction · National Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

WiltzDrawUS Rumelange

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Wiltz 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wiltz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wiltz 46%, draw 19%, US Rumelange 34%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Wiltz v US RumelangeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Wiltz win46%

Draw19%

US Rumelange win34%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStade Am Petz

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wiltz

US Rumelange

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · National Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	US Rumelange	10	−16	7
15	Wiltz	10	−13	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wiltz winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Wiltz a 46% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.9, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wiltz v US Rumelange~~2.23 – 1.89

~~Form · last six in National Division this season · since 30 Aug~~W0 D0 L6 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 4 v 7~~15 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wiltz win	46%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
US Rumelange win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	57%	–	–
Wiltz or draw	66%	–	–
Wiltz clean sheet	16%	–	–
US Rumelange clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.4%

0123450 3.6 3.1 1 4.2 6.9 6.3 3.9 2 4.2 7.4 6.6 4.1 2.0 3 3.1 5.3 4.8 3.0 4 3.0 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wiltz down, US Rumelange across0–5 goals a side shown (94.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,289 National Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.9% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Wiltz at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). US Rumelange away: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.23 goals for Wiltz, 1.89 for US Rumelange. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National Division this season · since 30 Aug

WILTZ

LLLLLL1–2 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 2–4 · 0–2 · 1–4

US RUMELANGE

LLLLLD2–5 · 0–3 · 0–6 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UNA Strassen	10	+17	28
2	FC Differdange 03	10	+22	27
3	US Mondorf-les-bains	10	+9	24
4	UN Kaerjeng 97	10	+12	21
5	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	10	+13	19
6	Atert Bissen	10	+11	19
7	Progres Niederkorn	10	+9	19
8	Résidence Walferdange	10	0	16
9	F91 Dudelange	10	0	13
10	US Hostert	10	−3	11
11	AS Jeunesse Esch	10	−5	10
12	Victoria Rosport	10	−8	8
13	US Rumelange	10	−16	7
14	Etzella Ettelbruck	10	−12	5
15	Wiltz	10	−13	4
16	Swift Hesperange	10	−36	–