Wiltz v UNA Strassen prediction · National Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Wiltz 0–2 UNA Strassen UNA STRASSEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said UNA Strassen win~~70%

~~The market said~~77%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.134

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.085

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said UNA Strassen win at 70%.
1′KICK-OFF Wiltz v UNA Strassen
3′Much as we predicted: UNA Strassen was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 71% now. 0–0 · 12–17–71
6′Much as we predicted: UNA Strassen was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 12–18–70
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' UNA Strassen win: 70% at kick-off, 59% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' UNA Strassen win: 70% at kick-off, 65% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' UNA Strassen win: 70% at kick-off, 65% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' UNA Strassen win: 70% at kick-off, 59% now
45′HALF-TIME Wiltz 0–0 UNA Strassen
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' UNA Strassen win: 70% at kick-off, 59% now
46′SECOND HALF Wiltz 0–0 UNA Strassen
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Wiltz 0–1 UNA Strassen
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Wiltz 0–2 UNA Strassen
FTFULL TIME Wiltz 0–2 UNA Strassen
FTWiltz 0–2 UNA Strassen · UNA Strassen win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Wiltz win13%

Draw17%

UNA Strassen win70%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenueStade Am Petz

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Wiltz

UNA Strassen

25Days since last match25

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UNA Strassen	8	+15	24
15	Wiltz	8	−8	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · una strassen winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

70% The market77%

Us70%

~~Market~~77%

We make UNA Strassen a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · una strassen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 76% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wiltz win	13%	8%	+5
Draw	17%	16%	+1
UNA Strassen win	70%	77%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	64%	65%	−1
Both teams to score	52%	48%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	83%	81%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	42%	46%	−3
Wiltz or draw	30%	23%	+6
Wiltz clean sheet	10%	–	–
UNA Strassen clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.3%

0123450 3.8 9.1 10.3 8.3 5.2 2.81 3.7 7.7 8.9 7.0 4.3 2.22 3.6 4.1 3.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wiltz down, UNA Strassen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,272 National Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.2% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wiltz at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). UNA Strassen away: 1.50 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.90 goals for Wiltz, 2.45 for UNA Strassen. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~UNA 3–0 WIL · WIL 0–3 UNA · UNA 1–1 WIL · WIL 2–1 UNA

Form · last six in National Division

WILTZ

LLLLLL1–2 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 2–4

UNA STRASSEN

WWWWWW1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UNA Strassen	8	+15	24
2	FC Differdange 03	8	+14	21
3	US Mondorf-les-bains	8	+5	18
4	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	8	+13	17
5	Progres Niederkorn	8	+8	16
6	UN Kaerjeng 97	8	+8	15
7	Atert Bissen	8	+7	15
8	Résidence Walferdange	8	+6	15
9	US Hostert	8	+3	11
10	AS Jeunesse Esch	8	−3	7
11	F91 Dudelange	8	−7	7
12	US Rumelange	8	−15	6
13	Victoria Rosport	8	−9	5
14	Etzella Ettelbruck	8	−9	5
15	Wiltz	8	−8	4
16	Swift Hesperange	8	−28	0