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Victoria Rosport v FC Differdange 03

Victoria Rosport

3–5Full time

FC Differdange 03

National Division · SUN 18 OCT · Party-Rent-Arena

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Victoria Rosport 3–5 FC Differdange 03 FC DIFFERDANGE 03 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Differdange 03 win~~74%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.103

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.077

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Differdange 03 win at 74%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Differdange 03 74% before kick-off, 74% now. 0–0 · 10–16–74
1′KICK-OFF Victoria Rosport v FC Differdange 03
3′GOAL DISALLOWED · 3' FC Differdange 03
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' FC Differdange 03 win: 74% at kick-off, 73% now
5′FC Differdange 03 score on 4′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 3–7–90
5′We said FC Differdange 03 at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 3–7–90
5′⚽ GOAL · 4' Victoria Rosport 0–1 FC Differdange 03
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' FC Differdange 03 win: 74% at kick-off, 90% now
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Victoria Rosport 0–1 FC Differdange 03
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' FC Differdange 03 win: 74% at kick-off, 90% now
9′Victoria Rosport find the net on 8′. 1–1. 1–1 · 10–18–72
9′⚽ GOAL · 8' Victoria Rosport 1–1 FC Differdange 03
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' FC Differdange 03 win: 74% at kick-off, 72% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' FC Differdange 03 win: 74% at kick-off, 64% now
36′We said FC Differdange 03 at 74%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 62%. 1–1 · 11–27–62
42′We said FC Differdange 03 at 74%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 1–1 · 11–30–59
45′HALF-TIME Victoria Rosport 1–2 FC Differdange 03
46′A goal for FC Differdange 03 on 45′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 2–9–89
46′We said FC Differdange 03 at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 1–2 · 2–9–89
46′⚽ GOAL · 45' Victoria Rosport 1–2 FC Differdange 03
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' FC Differdange 03 win: 74% at kick-off, 89% now
46′SECOND HALF Victoria Rosport 1–2 FC Differdange 03
47′FC Differdange 03 score on 46′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
47′We said FC Differdange 03 at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 1–3 · 0–2–98
47′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–2–98
47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Victoria Rosport 1–3 FC Differdange 03
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' FC Differdange 03 win: 74% at kick-off, 98% now
54′FC Differdange 03 find the net on 53′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
54′We said FC Differdange 03 at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
54′5 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Victoria Rosport 1–4 FC Differdange 03
82′A goal for Victoria Rosport on 82′ — 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
82′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–0–100
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Victoria Rosport 2–4 FC Differdange 03
85′K. Marques scores for Victoria Rosport on 81′ — 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
90′Victoria Rosport score on 90′ to make it 3–4. 3–4 · 0–2–98
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Victoria Rosport 3–4 FC Differdange 03
91′7 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–4 · 0–2–98
91′FC Differdange 03 find the net on 90′. 3–5. 3–5 · 0–0–100
91′That is 8, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 3–5 · 0–0–100
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Victoria Rosport 3–5 FC Differdange 03
FTFULL TIME Victoria Rosport 3–5 FC Differdange 03
FTVictoria Rosport 3–5 FC Differdange 03 · FC Differdange 03 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Differdange 03 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Victoria Rosport 10%, draw 16%, FC Differdange 03 74%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Victoria Rosport v FC Differdange 03Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Victoria Rosport win10%

Draw16%

FC Differdange 03 win74%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueParty-Rent-Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Victoria Rosport

FC Differdange 03

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · National Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	FC Differdange 03	9	+20	24
11	Victoria Rosport	9	−6	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc differdange 03 winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

74% The market78%

Us74%

~~Market~~78%

We make FC Differdange 03 a 74% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–2.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Victoria Rosport v FC Differdange 03~~0.70 – 2.38

~~Form · last six in National Division this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 8 v 24~~11 v 2

~~The market · FC Differdange 03 win~~78% · ours 74%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Differdange 03 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Victoria Rosport win	10%	8%	+2
Draw	16%	14%	+2
FC Differdange 03 win	74%	78%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	59%	65%	−6
Both teams to score	44%	47%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	80%	83%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	37%	45%	−8
Victoria Rosport or draw	26%	22%	+4
Victoria Rosport clean sheet	10%	–	–
FC Differdange 03 clean sheet	51%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 12.8%

0123450 4.8 11.3 12.8 10.1 6.2 3.11 3.6 7.5 8.6 6.7 4.0 2 2.8 3.1 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Victoria Rosport down, FC Differdange 03 across0–5 goals a side shown (95.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,281 National Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.5% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Victoria Rosport at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). FC Differdange 03 away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.70 goals for Victoria Rosport, 2.38 for FC Differdange 03. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCD 4–1 VIC · FCD 3–0 VIC · VIC 0–2 FCD · VIC 0–2 FCD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National Division this season · since 23 Aug

VICTORIA ROSPORT

WDLLDW4–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–5 · 1–1 · 3–0

FC DIFFERDANGE 03

WWWWWW3–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 6–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UNA Strassen	9	+17	27
2	FC Differdange 03	9	+20	24
3	UN Kaerjeng 97	10	+12	21
4	US Mondorf-les-bains	9	+6	21
5	Progres Niederkorn	10	+9	19
6	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	9	+13	18
7	Atert Bissen	9	+7	16
8	Résidence Walferdange	9	0	15
9	US Hostert	9	+1	11
10	F91 Dudelange	9	−5	10
11	Victoria Rosport	9	−6	8
12	AS Jeunesse Esch	9	−6	7
13	US Rumelange	9	−16	6
14	Etzella Ettelbruck	9	−11	5
15	Wiltz	9	−10	4
16	Swift Hesperange	9	−31	–