US Rumelange v US Mondorf-les-bains prediction · National Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

US Rumelange 1–2 US Mondorf-les-bains US MONDORF-LES-BAINS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said US Mondorf-les-bains win~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.153

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said US Mondorf-les-bains win at 68%.
1′KICK-OFF US Rumelange v US Mondorf-les-bains
4′Little has changed for our model: US Mondorf-les-bains 68% before kick-off, 69% now. 0–0 · 14–17–69
7′Little has changed for our model: US Mondorf-les-bains 68% before kick-off, 68% now. 0–0 · 14–18–68
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' US Rumelange 0–1 US Mondorf-les-bains
20′US Mondorf-les-bains ahead on 11′ through H. Far. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–10–85
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' US Mondorf-les-bains win: 68% at kick-off, 85% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' US Mondorf-les-bains win: 68% at kick-off, 68% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' US Mondorf-les-bains win: 68% at kick-off, 68% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' US Mondorf-les-bains win: 68% at kick-off, 85% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' US Mondorf-les-bains win: 68% at kick-off, 68% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' US Mondorf-les-bains win: 68% at kick-off, 85% now
23′US Mondorf-les-bains ahead on 11′ through H. Far. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–11–85
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' US Mondorf-les-bains win: 68% at kick-off, 68% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' US Mondorf-les-bains win: 68% at kick-off, 85% now
38′We said US Mondorf-les-bains at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 0–1 · 4–12–84
39′We said US Mondorf-les-bains at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 0–1 · 4–12–84
45′⚽ GOAL · 47' US Rumelange 1–1 US Mondorf-les-bains
45′HALF-TIME US Rumelange 1–1 US Mondorf-les-bains
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' US Mondorf-les-bains win: 68% at kick-off, 84% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 11' US Rumelange 1–1 US Mondorf-les-bains · H. Far
46′SECOND HALF US Rumelange 1–1 US Mondorf-les-bains
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' US Rumelange 1–2 US Mondorf-les-bains
FTFULL TIME US Rumelange 1–2 US Mondorf-les-bains
FTUS Rumelange 1–2 US Mondorf-les-bains · US Mondorf-les-bains win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

US Rumelange win15%

Draw17%

US Mondorf-les-bains win68%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

US Rumelange

US Mondorf-les-bains

25Days since last match25

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	US Mondorf-les-bains	8	+5	18
12	US Rumelange	8	−15	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · us mondorf-les-bains winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

68% The market–

Us68%

We make US Mondorf-les-bains a 68% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–2.6, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
US Rumelange win	15%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
US Mondorf-les-bains win	68%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
US Rumelange or draw	32%	–	–
US Rumelange clean sheet	9%	–	–
US Mondorf-les-bains clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.7%

0123450 2.8 7.1 8.3 6.9 4.6 2.61 3.3 7.2 8.7 7.1 4.6 2.52 4.0 4.8 3.9 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+US Rumelange down, US Mondorf-les-bains across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,272 National Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.2% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

US Rumelange at home: 1.50 scored, 3.25 conceded a game (last 4). US Mondorf-les-bains away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for US Rumelange, 2.59 for US Mondorf-les-bains. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in National Division

US RUMELANGE

WLLLLL3–2 · 2–3 · 2–5 · 0–3 · 0–6 · 0–2

US MONDORF-LES-BAINS

WWWWLL1–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UNA Strassen	8	+15	24
2	FC Differdange 03	8	+14	21
3	US Mondorf-les-bains	8	+5	18
4	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	8	+13	17
5	Progres Niederkorn	8	+8	16
6	UN Kaerjeng 97	8	+8	15
7	Atert Bissen	8	+7	15
8	Résidence Walferdange	8	+6	15
9	US Hostert	8	+3	11
10	AS Jeunesse Esch	8	−3	7
11	F91 Dudelange	8	−7	7
12	US Rumelange	8	−15	6
13	Victoria Rosport	8	−9	5
14	Etzella Ettelbruck	8	−9	5
15	Wiltz	8	−8	4
16	Swift Hesperange	8	−28	0