US Mondorf-les-bains v Wiltz prediction · National Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

US Mondorf-les-bains 4–1 Wiltz US MONDORF-LES-BAINS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said US Mondorf-les-bains win~~70%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.131

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.101

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said US Mondorf-les-bains win at 70%.
1′Much as we predicted: US Mondorf-les-bains was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–16–14
1′KICK-OFF US Mondorf-les-bains v Wiltz
7′US Mondorf-les-bains score on 7′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 86–9–5
7′We published US Mondorf-les-bains at 70%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–9–5
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' US Mondorf-les-bains 1–0 Wiltz
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' US Mondorf-les-bains win: 70% at kick-off, 86% now
22′US Mondorf-les-bains find the net on 22′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
22′We published US Mondorf-les-bains at 70%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' US Mondorf-les-bains 2–0 Wiltz
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' US Mondorf-les-bains win: 70% at kick-off, 96% now
25′US Mondorf-les-bains ahead on 21′ through H. Far. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
31′A goal for Wiltz on 31′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 85–11–4
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' US Mondorf-les-bains 2–1 Wiltz
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' US Mondorf-les-bains win: 70% at kick-off, 85% now
33′B. Romeyns scores for Wiltz on 30′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 85–11–4
45′HALF-TIME US Mondorf-les-bains 3–1 Wiltz
46′SECOND HALF US Mondorf-les-bains 3–1 Wiltz
47′US Mondorf-les-bains score on 45′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–1
47′4 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 97–3–1
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' US Mondorf-les-bains 3–1 Wiltz
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' US Mondorf-les-bains win: 70% at kick-off, 97% now
80′US Mondorf-les-bains find the net on 79′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
80′We published US Mondorf-les-bains at 70%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' US Mondorf-les-bains 4–1 Wiltz
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' US Mondorf-les-bains win: 70% at kick-off, over 99% now
81′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME US Mondorf-les-bains 4–1 Wiltz
FTUS Mondorf-les-bains 4–1 Wiltz · US Mondorf-les-bains win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

US Mondorf-les-bains are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: US Mondorf-les-bains 70%, draw 16%, Wiltz 14%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on US Mondorf-les-bains v WiltzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

US Mondorf-les-bains win70%

Draw16%

Wiltz win14%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStade John Grun

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

US Mondorf-les-bains

Wiltz

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · National Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	US Mondorf-les-bains	9	+6	21
15	Wiltz	9	−10	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · us mondorf-les-bains winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:08 · locked at kick-off

70% The market74%

Us70%

~~Market~~74%

We make US Mondorf-les-bains a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · US Mondorf-les-bains v Wiltz~~2.66 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in National Division this season · since 23 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 21 v 4~~4 v 15

~~The market · US Mondorf-les-bains win~~74% · ours 70%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · US Mondorf-les-bains win The market, margin stripped

Published at 71%, 70% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
US Mondorf-les-bains win	70%	74%	−4
Draw	16%	16%	0
Wiltz win	14%	9%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	70%	67%	+3
Both teams to score	59%	53%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	87%	85%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	50%	48%	+2
US Mondorf-les-bains or draw	86%	91%	−5
US Mondorf-les-bains clean sheet	36%	–	–
Wiltz clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.7%

0123450 2.7 3.1 1 7.0 6.9 3.7 2 8.6 8.7 4.6 3 7.4 7.4 3.9 4 5.0 4.9 2.5 5 2.8 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+US Mondorf-les-bains down, Wiltz across0–5 goals a side shown (93.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,281 National Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.5% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.62 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

US Mondorf-les-bains at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Wiltz away: 2.00 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.66 goals for US Mondorf-les-bains, 1.04 for Wiltz. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.62

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~WIL 0–2 USM · USM 3–2 WIL · WIL 2–2 USM · USM 2–0 WIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National Division this season · since 23 Aug

US MONDORF-LES-BAINS

WWWLLW3–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

WILTZ

LLLLLL0–4 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 2–4 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UNA Strassen	9	+17	27
2	FC Differdange 03	9	+20	24
3	UN Kaerjeng 97	10	+12	21
4	US Mondorf-les-bains	9	+6	21
5	Progres Niederkorn	10	+9	19
6	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	9	+13	18
7	Atert Bissen	9	+7	16
8	Résidence Walferdange	9	0	15
9	US Hostert	9	+1	11
10	F91 Dudelange	9	−5	10
11	Victoria Rosport	9	−6	8
12	AS Jeunesse Esch	9	−6	7
13	US Rumelange	9	−16	6
14	Etzella Ettelbruck	9	−11	5
15	Wiltz	9	−10	4
16	Swift Hesperange	9	−31	–