US Hostert v UNA Strassen prediction · National Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

US HostertDrawUNA Strassen

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · UNA Strassen 66%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

UNA Strassen are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: US Hostert 15%, draw 20%, UNA Strassen 66%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on US Hostert v UNA StrassenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

US Hostert win15%

Draw20%

UNA Strassen win66%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStade Jos Becker

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

US Hostert

UNA Strassen

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · National Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · una strassen winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

66% The market–

Us66%

We make UNA Strassen a 66% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–2.1, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · US Hostert v UNA Strassen~~0.85 – 2.09

~~Form · last six in National Division this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 28~~10 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
US Hostert win	15%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
UNA Strassen win	66%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
US Hostert or draw	34%	–	–
US Hostert clean sheet	13%	–	–
UNA Strassen clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.4%

0123450 5.5 11.4 11.4 7.9 4.3 1 4.8 9.1 9.3 6.4 3.4 2 2.0 4.0 4.0 2.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+US Hostert down, UNA Strassen across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,289 National Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.9% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

US Hostert at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). UNA Strassen away: 1.83 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.85 goals for US Hostert, 2.09 for UNA Strassen. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~USH 1–0 UNA · UNA 4–0 USH · USH 1–2 UNA · USH 2–2 UNA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National Division this season · since 30 Aug

US HOSTERT

LWDDLL0–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–5

UNA STRASSEN

WWWWWD2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UNA Strassen	10	+17	28
2	FC Differdange 03	10	+22	27
3	US Mondorf-les-bains	10	+9	24
4	UN Kaerjeng 97	10	+12	21
5	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	10	+13	19
6	Atert Bissen	10	+11	19
7	Progres Niederkorn	11	+7	19
8	Résidence Walferdange	10	0	16
9	F91 Dudelange	10	0	13
10	US Hostert	10	−3	11
11	AS Jeunesse Esch	10	−5	10
12	Victoria Rosport	10	−8	8
13	Etzella Ettelbruck	11	−10	8
14	US Rumelange	10	−16	7
15	Wiltz	10	−13	4
16	Swift Hesperange	10	−36	–