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US Hostert v Progres Niederkorn
US HostertProgres NiederkornNational Division · SUN 11 OCT · Stade Jos Becker
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Progres Niederkorn win at 50%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Progres Niederkorn was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 27–23–50
- 4′Progres Niederkorn find the net on 3′. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–16–73
- 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Progres Niederkorn win: 50% at kick-off, 50% now
- 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Progres Niederkorn win: 50% at kick-off, 73% now
- 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Progres Niederkorn win: 50% at kick-off, 73% now
- 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Progres Niederkorn win: 50% at kick-off, 50% now
- 17′A goal for Progres Niederkorn on 14′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 3–7–90
- 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Progres Niederkorn win: 50% at kick-off, 50% now
- 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Progres Niederkorn win: 50% at kick-off, 73% now
- 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Progres Niederkorn win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
- 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Progres Niederkorn win: 50% at kick-off, 73% now
- 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Progres Niederkorn win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
- 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Progres Niederkorn win: 50% at kick-off, 73% now
- 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Progres Niederkorn win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
- 20′C. Kitenge scores for Progres Niederkorn on 15′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 3–7–91
- 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Progres Niederkorn win: 50% at kick-off, 73% now
- 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Progres Niederkorn win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
- 36′We published Progres Niederkorn at 50%. Our model now makes it 92%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
- 37′We published Progres Niederkorn at 50%. Our model now makes it 93%. 0–2 · 2–6–93
- 45′HALF-TIME US Hostert 0–2 Progres Niederkorn
- 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Progres Niederkorn win: 50% at kick-off, 92% now
- 45′⚽ GOAL · 4' US Hostert 0–2 Progres Niederkorn · W. Amadi
- 45′⚽ GOAL · 15' US Hostert 0–2 Progres Niederkorn · C. Kitenge (assist W. Amadi)
- 46′SECOND HALF US Hostert 0–2 Progres Niederkorn
- 89′🟥 RED CARD · 89' US Hostert
- FTFULL TIME US Hostert 0–2 Progres Niederkorn
- FTUS Hostert 0–2 Progres Niederkorn · Progres Niederkorn win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.
The model’s prediction on this page stays free.
Pre-match prediction
Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15
US Hostert win27%Progres Niederkorn win50%Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00
VenueStade Jos Becker
Match timeline
All events
US HostertMINProgres NiederkornEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · this competition
US Hostert
Progres Niederkorn
Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions of these teams
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Progres Niederkorn | 8 | +8 | 16 |
| 9 | US Hostert | 8 | +3 | 11 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Progres Niederkorn a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.8.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Hostert win | 27% | 24% | +4 |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | −2 |
| Progres Niederkorn win | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 56% | +2 |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 36% | +1 |
| US Hostert or draw | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| US Hostert clean sheet | 17% | – | – |
| Progres Niederkorn clean sheet | 29% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
8 meetings since 2021Form · last six in National Division
US HOSTERT
PROGRES NIEDERKORN
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UNA Strassen | 8 | +15 | 24 |
| 2 |  FC Differdange 03 | 8 | +14 | 21 |
| 3 |  US Mondorf-les-bains | 8 | +5 | 18 |
| 4 |  Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 8 | +13 | 17 |
| 5 | Progres Niederkorn | 8 | +8 | 16 |
| 6 |  UN Kaerjeng 97 | 8 | +8 | 15 |
| 7 |  Atert Bissen | 8 | +7 | 15 |
| 8 |  Résidence Walferdange | 8 | +6 | 15 |
| 9 | US Hostert | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 10 |  AS Jeunesse Esch | 8 | −3 | 7 |
| 11 |  F91 Dudelange | 8 | −7 | 7 |
| 12 |  US Rumelange | 8 | −15 | 6 |
| 13 |  Victoria Rosport | 8 | −9 | 5 |
| 14 |  Etzella Ettelbruck | 8 | −9 | 5 |
| 15 |  Wiltz | 8 | −8 | 4 |
| 16 |  Swift Hesperange | 8 | −28 | 0 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.