UNA Strassen v UN Kaerjeng 97 prediction · National Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

UNA StrassenDrawUN Kaerjeng 97

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · UNA Strassen 61%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

UNA Strassen are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: UNA Strassen 61%, draw 20%, UN Kaerjeng 97 18%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on UNA Strassen v UN Kaerjeng 97Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

UNA Strassen win61%

Draw20%

UN Kaerjeng 97 win18%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UNA Strassen

UN Kaerjeng 97

13Days since last match14

Last match: 18 Oct · National Division

Last match: 17 Oct · National Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · una strassen winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make UNA Strassen a 61% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UNA Strassen v UN Kaerjeng 97~~2.04 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in National Division this season · since 30 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 28 v 21~~1 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UNA Strassen win	61%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
UN Kaerjeng 97 win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
UNA Strassen or draw	82%	–	–
UNA Strassen clean sheet	38%	–	–
UN Kaerjeng 97 clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.3%

0123450 5.1 5.2 2.5 1 10.3 9.5 4.7 2 10.0 9.5 4.7 3 6.8 6.4 3.2 4 3.6 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UNA Strassen down, UN Kaerjeng 97 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,289 National Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.9% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UNA Strassen at home: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). UN Kaerjeng 97 away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.04 goals for UNA Strassen, 0.98 for UN Kaerjeng 97. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~UNK 1–0 UNA · UNA 4–0 UNK · UNK 0–1 UNA · UNA 2–1 UNK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National Division this season · since 30 Aug

UNA STRASSEN

WWWWWD2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

UN KAERJENG 97

WLWWWW6–0 · 1–4 · 5–0 · 4–2 · 4–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UNA Strassen	10	+17	28
2	FC Differdange 03	10	+22	27
3	US Mondorf-les-bains	10	+9	24
4	UN Kaerjeng 97	10	+12	21
5	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	10	+13	19
6	Atert Bissen	10	+11	19
7	Progres Niederkorn	11	+7	19
8	Résidence Walferdange	10	0	16
9	F91 Dudelange	10	0	13
10	US Hostert	10	−3	11
11	AS Jeunesse Esch	10	−5	10
12	Victoria Rosport	10	−8	8
13	Etzella Ettelbruck	11	−10	8
14	US Rumelange	10	−16	7
15	Wiltz	10	−13	4
16	Swift Hesperange	10	−36	–