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UNA Strassen v Racing FC Union Luxembourg

UNA Strassen
1–1Full time
Racing FC Union Luxembourg

National Division · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02
UNA Strassen 1–1 Racing FC Union Luxembourg UNA STRASSEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said UNA Strassen win55%
The market said58%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.948
The market’s Brier score0.947

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 14 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said UNA Strassen win at 55%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: UNA Strassen was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–23–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF UNA Strassen v Racing FC Union Luxembourg
  4. 7′A goal for UNA Strassen on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–14–8
  5. 7′We published UNA Strassen at 55%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–14–8
  6. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' UNA Strassen 1–0 Racing FC Union Luxembourg
  7. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' UNA Strassen win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
  8. 10′Racing FC Union Luxembourg score on 9′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 53–25–22
  9. 10′⚽ GOAL · 9' UNA Strassen 1–1 Racing FC Union Luxembourg
  10. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' UNA Strassen win: 55% at kick-off, 53% now
  11. 13′10′: D. Stolz on the scoresheet for Racing FC Union Luxembourg, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 52–26–22
  12. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' UNA Strassen win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
  13. 43′We said UNA Strassen at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 43–36–20
  14. 45′HALF-TIME UNA Strassen 1–1 Racing FC Union Luxembourg
  15. 46′SECOND HALF UNA Strassen 1–1 Racing FC Union Luxembourg
  16. 52′We said UNA Strassen at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–41–19
  17. 52′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 39–41–19
  18. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was UNA Strassen win 38%)
  19. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' UNA Strassen win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
  20. 61′We said UNA Strassen at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–49–17
  21. 68′We said UNA Strassen at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–56–15
  22. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' UNA Strassen win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
  23. 73′We said UNA Strassen at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–63–13
  24. 78′We said UNA Strassen at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–71–10
  25. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' UNA Strassen win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
  26. 82′We said UNA Strassen at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–79–7
  27. 86′We said UNA Strassen at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–5
  28. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' UNA Strassen win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
  29. 92′We said UNA Strassen at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
  30. FTFULL TIME UNA Strassen 1–1 Racing FC Union Luxembourg
  31. FTUNA Strassen 1–1 Racing FC Union Luxembourg · UNA Strassen win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

UNA Strassen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: UNA Strassen 55%, draw 23%, Racing FC Union Luxembourg 22%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on UNA Strassen v Racing FC Union LuxembourgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

UNA Strassen win55%
Draw23%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UNA Strassen

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · National Division

Last match: 11 Oct · National Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1UNA Strassen9+1727
6Racing FC Union Luxembourg9+1318

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · una strassen winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
55% The market58%
Us55%
Market58%

We make UNA Strassen a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · UNA Strassen v Racing FC Union Luxembourg1.78 – 1.02
Form · last six in National Division this season · since 22 AugW6 D0 L0 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 27 v 181 v 6
The market · UNA Strassen win58% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 12 OCT 04:0318 OCT 14:26
Our probability · UNA Strassen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
UNA Strassen win55%58%−3
Draw23%24%−1
Racing FC Union Luxembourg win22%18%+4
Over 2.5 goals53%53%0
Both teams to score52%52%0
Over 1.5 goals76%75%+1
Over 3.5 goals31%33%−2
UNA Strassen or draw78%82%−4
UNA Strassen clean sheet37%––
Racing FC Union Luxembourg clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.1%
0123450 6.2 6.6 3.3 1 11.1 10.6 5.5 2 9.5 9.4 4.8 3 5.7 5.6 2.8 4 2.6 2.6 5
under 2% 5% 12%+UNA Strassen down, Racing FC Union Luxembourg across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.60
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsUNA 1–0 RAC · RAC 1–2 UNA · RAC 0–1 UNA · UNA 0–0 RAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National Division this season · since 22 Aug

UNA STRASSEN

WWWWWW1–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–0

RACING FC UNION LUXEMBOURG

LDWWDD0–3 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1UNA Strassen9+1727
2FC Differdange 039+2024
3UN Kaerjeng 9710+1221
4US Mondorf-les-bains9+621
5Progres Niederkorn10+919
6Racing FC Union Luxembourg9+1318
7Atert Bissen9+716
8Résidence Walferdange9015
9US Hostert9+111
10F91 Dudelange9−510
11Victoria Rosport9−68
12AS Jeunesse Esch9−67
13US Rumelange9−166
14Etzella Ettelbruck9−115
15Wiltz9−104
16Swift Hesperange9−31–

The competition's standings before kick-off.