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Swift Hesperange v Victoria Rosport

Swift Hesperange

0–3Full time

Victoria Rosport

National Division · SUN 11 OCT · Stade Alphonse Theis

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Swift Hesperange 0–3 Victoria Rosport VICTORIA ROSPORT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Victoria Rosport win~~38%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.582

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.195

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Victoria Rosport win at 38%.
5′Little has changed for our model: Swift Hesperange 38% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–25–38
8′Little has changed for our model: Swift Hesperange 38% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–26–37
21′19′ and it is 0–1: Victoria Rosport have scored. 0–1 · 15–21–64
24′18′ and it is 0–1: A. Goncalves on the scoresheet for Victoria Rosport. 0–1 · 14–21–65
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Victoria Rosport win: 38% at kick-off, 37% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Victoria Rosport win: 38% at kick-off, 64% now
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Swift Hesperange 0–2 Victoria Rosport
39′Victoria Rosport ahead on 29′ through J. Villeneuve. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–89
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Victoria Rosport win: 38% at kick-off, 89% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Victoria Rosport win: 38% at kick-off, 65% now
40′Victoria Rosport ahead on 29′ through J. Villeneuve. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–89
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Victoria Rosport win: 38% at kick-off, 89% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Victoria Rosport win: 38% at kick-off, 65% now
45′HALF-TIME Swift Hesperange 0–2 Victoria Rosport
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Victoria Rosport win: 38% at kick-off, 89% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Victoria Rosport win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Swift Hesperange win 3%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 18' Swift Hesperange 0–2 Victoria Rosport · A. Goncalves (assist L. Walbrecq)
45′⚽ GOAL · 29' Swift Hesperange 0–2 Victoria Rosport · J. Villeneuve
46′SECOND HALF Swift Hesperange 0–2 Victoria Rosport
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Swift Hesperange 0–3 Victoria Rosport
FTFULL TIME Swift Hesperange 0–3 Victoria Rosport
FTSwift Hesperange 0–3 Victoria Rosport · Victoria Rosport win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Swift Hesperange win38%

Draw23%

Victoria Rosport win38%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenueStade Alphonse Theis

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Swift Hesperange

Victoria Rosport

25Days since last match25

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Victoria Rosport	8	−9	5
16	Swift Hesperange	8	−28	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · victoria rosport winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

38% The market64%

Us38%

~~Market~~64%

We make Victoria Rosport a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 26 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · victoria rosport win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Swift Hesperange win	38%	15%	+23
Draw	23%	21%	+3
Victoria Rosport win	38%	64%	−26
Over 2.5 goals	58%	62%	−4
Both teams to score	59%	56%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	81%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	36%	41%	−6
Swift Hesperange or draw	62%	36%	+26
Swift Hesperange clean sheet	23%	–	–
Victoria Rosport clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.0 7.7 5.6 2.9 1 7.8 10.7 8.0 4.1 2 5.7 8.1 5.9 3.0 3 2.9 4.1 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Swift Hesperange down, Victoria Rosport across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,272 National Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.2% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Swift Hesperange at home: 0.83 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Victoria Rosport away: 1.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Swift Hesperange, 1.51 for Victoria Rosport. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SWI 3–0 VIC · VIC 2–2 SWI · VIC 1–1 SWI · SWI 5–0 VIC

Form · last six in National Division

SWIFT HESPERANGE

LLLLLL0–5 · 0–2 · 0–6 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–3

VICTORIA ROSPORT

LWDLLD2–3 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–5 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UNA Strassen	8	+15	24
2	FC Differdange 03	8	+14	21
3	US Mondorf-les-bains	8	+5	18
4	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	8	+13	17
5	Progres Niederkorn	8	+8	16
6	UN Kaerjeng 97	8	+8	15
7	Atert Bissen	8	+7	15
8	Résidence Walferdange	8	+6	15
9	US Hostert	8	+3	11
10	AS Jeunesse Esch	8	−3	7
11	F91 Dudelange	8	−7	7
12	US Rumelange	8	−15	6
13	Victoria Rosport	8	−9	5
14	Etzella Ettelbruck	8	−9	5
15	Wiltz	8	−8	4
16	Swift Hesperange	8	−28	0