Swift Hesperange v AS Jeunesse Esch prediction · National Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Swift HesperangeDrawAS Jeunesse Esch

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · AS Jeunesse Esch 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AS Jeunesse Esch are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Swift Hesperange 26%, draw 22%, AS Jeunesse Esch 53%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Swift Hesperange v AS Jeunesse EschBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Swift Hesperange win26%

Draw22%

AS Jeunesse Esch win53%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStade Alphonse Theis

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Swift Hesperange

AS Jeunesse Esch

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · National Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	AS Jeunesse Esch	10	−5	10
16	Swift Hesperange	10	−36	–

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · as jeunesse esch winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make AS Jeunesse Esch a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Swift Hesperange v AS Jeunesse Esch~~1.19 – 1.86

~~Form · last six in National Division this season · since 30 Aug~~W0 D0 L6 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places~~16 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Swift Hesperange win	26%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
AS Jeunesse Esch win	53%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Swift Hesperange or draw	47%	–	–
Swift Hesperange clean sheet	17%	–	–
AS Jeunesse Esch clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.9 9.1 8.0 5.1 2.6 1 6.2 10.1 9.0 5.6 2.7 2 3.7 6.2 5.3 3.2 3 2.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Swift Hesperange down, AS Jeunesse Esch across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,289 National Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.9% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Swift Hesperange at home: 0.83 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). AS Jeunesse Esch away: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Swift Hesperange, 1.86 for AS Jeunesse Esch. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ASJ 1–1 SWI · SWI 0–1 ASJ · ASJ 3–3 SWI · SWI 5–1 ASJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National Division this season · since 30 Aug

SWIFT HESPERANGE

LLLLLL0–6 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–5

AS JEUNESSE ESCH

WWLDLW5–2 · 5–1 · 1–5 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UNA Strassen	10	+17	28
2	FC Differdange 03	10	+22	27
3	US Mondorf-les-bains	10	+9	24
4	UN Kaerjeng 97	10	+12	21
5	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	10	+13	19
6	Atert Bissen	10	+11	19
7	Progres Niederkorn	11	+7	19
8	Résidence Walferdange	10	0	16
9	F91 Dudelange	10	0	13
10	US Hostert	10	−3	11
11	AS Jeunesse Esch	10	−5	10
12	Victoria Rosport	10	−8	8
13	Etzella Ettelbruck	11	−10	8
14	US Rumelange	10	−16	7
15	Wiltz	10	−13	4
16	Swift Hesperange	10	−36	–