Racing FC Union Luxembourg v US Mondorf-les-bains prediction · National Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Racing FC Union LuxembourgDrawUS Mondorf-les-bains

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · US Mondorf-les-bains 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with US Mondorf-les-bains just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Racing FC Union Luxembourg 38%, draw 23%, US Mondorf-les-bains 39%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Racing FC Union Luxembourg v US Mondorf-les-bainsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Racing FC Union Luxembourg win38%

Draw23%

US Mondorf-les-bains win39%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStade Achille Hammerel

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

US Mondorf-les-bains

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · National Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	US Mondorf-les-bains	10	+9	24
5	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	10	+13	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · us mondorf-les-bains winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make US Mondorf-les-bains a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Racing FC Union Luxembourg v US Mondorf-les-bains~~1.56 – 1.58

~~Form · last six in National Division this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D4 L0 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 24~~5 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Racing FC Union Luxembourg win	38%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
US Mondorf-les-bains win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Racing FC Union Luxembourg or draw	61%	–	–
Racing FC Union Luxembourg clean sheet	21%	–	–
US Mondorf-les-bains clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.5 7.2 5.5 2.9 1 7.1 10.3 8.1 4.3 2 5.3 8.0 6.2 3.3 3 2.8 4.2 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Racing FC Union Luxembourg down, US Mondorf-les-bains across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,288 National Division matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.8% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at home: 4.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). US Mondorf-les-bains away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Racing FC Union Luxembourg, 1.58 for US Mondorf-les-bains. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~USM 1–3 RAC · RAC 0–2 USM · USM 0–1 RAC · RAC 3–0 USM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National Division this season · since 30 Aug

RACING FC UNION LUXEMBOURG

DWWDDD2–2 · 3–1 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1

US MONDORF-LES-BAINS

WWLLWW2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UNA Strassen	10	+17	28
2	FC Differdange 03	10	+22	27
3	US Mondorf-les-bains	10	+9	24
4	UN Kaerjeng 97	10	+12	21
5	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	10	+13	19
6	Atert Bissen	10	+11	19
7	Progres Niederkorn	10	+9	19
8	Résidence Walferdange	10	0	16
9	F91 Dudelange	10	0	13
10	US Hostert	10	−3	11
11	AS Jeunesse Esch	10	−5	10
12	Victoria Rosport	10	−8	8
13	US Rumelange	10	−16	7
14	Etzella Ettelbruck	10	−12	5
15	Wiltz	10	−13	4
16	Swift Hesperange	10	−36	–