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Racing FC Union Luxembourg v Atert Bissen

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

2–2Full time

Atert Bissen

National Division · SUN 11 OCT · Stade Achille Hammerel

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2–2 Atert Bissen ATERT BISSEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atert Bissen win~~47%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.937

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.830

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atert Bissen win at 47%.
4′Much as we predicted: Atert Bissen was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 31–23–46
7′7′ and it is 0–1: Atert Bissen have scored. 0–1 · 14–17–69
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Atert Bissen win: 47% at kick-off, 46% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Atert Bissen win: 47% at kick-off, 69% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Atert Bissen win: 47% at kick-off, 46% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Atert Bissen win: 47% at kick-off, 69% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Atert Bissen win: 47% at kick-off, 69% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Atert Bissen win: 47% at kick-off, 46% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Atert Bissen win: 47% at kick-off, 69% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Atert Bissen win: 47% at kick-off, 46% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Atert Bissen win: 47% at kick-off, 46% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Atert Bissen win: 47% at kick-off, 69% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Atert Bissen win: 47% at kick-off, 69% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Atert Bissen win: 47% at kick-off, 46% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Atert Bissen win: 47% at kick-off, 69% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Atert Bissen win: 47% at kick-off, 46% now
21′7′ and it is 0–1: A. Santos Guimares on the scoresheet for Atert Bissen. 0–1 · 13–18–69
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Atert Bissen win: 47% at kick-off, 46% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Atert Bissen win: 47% at kick-off, 69% now
24′We published Atert Bissen at 47%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 12–18–70
45′HALF-TIME Racing FC Union Luxembourg 0–1 Atert Bissen
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Atert Bissen win: 47% at kick-off, 71% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 7' Racing FC Union Luxembourg 0–1 Atert Bissen · A. Santos Guimares
46′SECOND HALF Racing FC Union Luxembourg 0–1 Atert Bissen
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Racing FC Union Luxembourg 0–2 Atert Bissen
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1–2 Atert Bissen
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2–2 Atert Bissen
FTFULL TIME Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2–2 Atert Bissen
FTRacing FC Union Luxembourg 2–2 Atert Bissen · Atert Bissen win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Racing FC Union Luxembourg win32%

Draw21%

Atert Bissen win47%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenueStade Achille Hammerel

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

Atert Bissen

25Days since last match25

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	8	+13	17
7	Atert Bissen	8	+7	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atert bissen winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

47% The market35%

Us47%

~~Market~~35%

We make Atert Bissen a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · atert bissen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Racing FC Union Luxembourg win	32%	39%	−7
Draw	21%	26%	−4
Atert Bissen win	47%	35%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	66%	58%	+8
Both teams to score	66%	62%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	85%	79%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	45%	38%	+7
Racing FC Union Luxembourg or draw	53%	65%	−12
Racing FC Union Luxembourg clean sheet	15%	–	–
Atert Bissen clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.2 6.4 5.8 3.7 1 5.2 9.0 8.6 5.5 2.7 2 3.8 6.9 6.5 4.1 2.0 3 3.6 3.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Racing FC Union Luxembourg down, Atert Bissen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,272 National Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.2% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at home: 3.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Atert Bissen away: 3.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Racing FC Union Luxembourg, 1.92 for Atert Bissen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~RAC 0–5 ATE · ATE 3–0 RAC

Form · last six in National Division

RACING FC UNION LUXEMBOURG

WLDWWD5–0 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 5–1 · 0–0

ATERT BISSEN

LWLLWW0–4 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 6–0 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UNA Strassen	8	+15	24
2	FC Differdange 03	8	+14	21
3	US Mondorf-les-bains	8	+5	18
4	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	8	+13	17
5	Progres Niederkorn	8	+8	16
6	UN Kaerjeng 97	8	+8	15
7	Atert Bissen	8	+7	15
8	Résidence Walferdange	8	+6	15
9	US Hostert	8	+3	11
10	AS Jeunesse Esch	8	−3	7
11	F91 Dudelange	8	−7	7
12	US Rumelange	8	−15	6
13	Victoria Rosport	8	−9	5
14	Etzella Ettelbruck	8	−9	5
15	Wiltz	8	−8	4
16	Swift Hesperange	8	−28	0