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Model 1.2

Home › Football › National Division › Progres Niederkorn v UN Kaerjeng 97

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Progres Niederkorn v UN Kaerjeng 97

Progres Niederkorn
1–2Full time
UN Kaerjeng 97

National Division · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:11
Progres Niederkorn 1–2 UN Kaerjeng 97 PROGRES NIEDERKORN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Progres Niederkorn win48%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.782
The market’s Brier score0.783

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Progres Niederkorn win at 48%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Progres Niederkorn 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–22–29
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Progres Niederkorn v UN Kaerjeng 97
  4. 35′UN Kaerjeng 97 find the net on 35′. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–24–58
  5. 35′We said Progres Niederkorn at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–24–58
  6. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Progres Niederkorn 0–1 UN Kaerjeng 97
  7. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Progres Niederkorn win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
  8. 35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' UN Kaerjeng 97 win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Progres Niederkorn win 18%)
  9. 36′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 18–24–58
  10. 45′We said Progres Niederkorn at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Progres Niederkorn 0–1 UN Kaerjeng 97
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Progres Niederkorn 0–1 UN Kaerjeng 97
  13. 55′A goal for UN Kaerjeng 97 on 55′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–89
  14. 55′We said Progres Niederkorn at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–8–89
  15. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Progres Niederkorn 0–2 UN Kaerjeng 97
  16. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Progres Niederkorn win: 48% at kick-off, 2% now
  17. 80′Progres Niederkorn score on 80′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–15–84
  18. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Progres Niederkorn 1–2 UN Kaerjeng 97
  19. FTFULL TIME Progres Niederkorn 1–2 UN Kaerjeng 97
  20. FTProgres Niederkorn 1–2 UN Kaerjeng 97 · Progres Niederkorn win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Progres Niederkorn are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Progres Niederkorn 48%, draw 22%, UN Kaerjeng 97 29%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Progres Niederkorn v UN Kaerjeng 97Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Progres Niederkorn win48%
Draw22%
UN Kaerjeng 97 win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Progres Niederkorn

UN Kaerjeng 97

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · National Division

Last match: 11 Oct · National Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Progres Niederkorn9+1019
6UN Kaerjeng 979+1118

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · progres niederkorn winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off
48% The market47%
Us48%
Market47%

We make Progres Niederkorn a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Progres Niederkorn v UN Kaerjeng 971.85 – 1.39
Form · last six in National Division this season · since 22 AugW3 D1 L2 · W5 D0 L1
Table places · points 19 v 184 v 6
The market · Progres Niederkorn win47% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 11 OCT 04:0417 OCT 16:01
Our probability · Progres Niederkorn win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Progres Niederkorn win48%47%+1
Draw22%24%−2
UN Kaerjeng 97 win29%29%0
Over 2.5 goals62%57%+5
Both teams to score62%60%+2
Over 1.5 goals83%79%+4
Over 3.5 goals40%36%+4
Progres Niederkorn or draw71%71%0
Progres Niederkorn clean sheet26%––
UN Kaerjeng 97 clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%
0123450 4.0 5.8 3.9 1 7.6 9.8 6.8 3.2 2 6.7 9.0 6.1 2.9 3 4.2 5.5 3.8 4 2.6 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Progres Niederkorn down, UN Kaerjeng 97 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting2.71
Over 2.52 of 7
Both scored3 of 7
Last meetingsPRO 2–2 UNK · UNK 3–4 PRO · PRO 2–0 UNK · UNK 2–0 PRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National Division this season · since 22 Aug

PROGRES NIEDERKORN

LLWWDW0–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0

UN KAERJENG 97

WWLWWW1–0 · 6–0 · 1–4 · 5–0 · 4–2 · 4–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1UNA Strassen9+1727
2FC Differdange 039+2024
3US Mondorf-les-bains9+621
4Progres Niederkorn9+1019
5Racing FC Union Luxembourg9+1318
6UN Kaerjeng 979+1118
7Atert Bissen9+716
8Résidence Walferdange9015
9US Hostert9+111
10F91 Dudelange9−510
11Victoria Rosport9−68
12AS Jeunesse Esch9−67
13US Rumelange9−166
14Etzella Ettelbruck9−115
15Wiltz9−104
16Swift Hesperange9−31–

The competition's standings before kick-off.