Home › Football › National Division › Progres Niederkorn v UN Kaerjeng 97
Back

Progres Niederkorn v UN Kaerjeng 97
Progres Niederkorn
UN Kaerjeng 97National Division · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Progres Niederkorn win at 48%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Progres Niederkorn 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–22–29
- 1′KICK-OFF Progres Niederkorn v UN Kaerjeng 97
- 35′UN Kaerjeng 97 find the net on 35′. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–24–58
- 35′We said Progres Niederkorn at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–24–58
- 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Progres Niederkorn 0–1 UN Kaerjeng 97
- 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Progres Niederkorn win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
- 35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' UN Kaerjeng 97 win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Progres Niederkorn win 18%)
- 36′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 18–24–58
- 45′We said Progres Niederkorn at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
- 45′HALF-TIME Progres Niederkorn 0–1 UN Kaerjeng 97
- 46′SECOND HALF Progres Niederkorn 0–1 UN Kaerjeng 97
- 55′A goal for UN Kaerjeng 97 on 55′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–89
- 55′We said Progres Niederkorn at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–8–89
- 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Progres Niederkorn 0–2 UN Kaerjeng 97
- 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Progres Niederkorn win: 48% at kick-off, 2% now
- 80′Progres Niederkorn score on 80′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–15–84
- 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Progres Niederkorn 1–2 UN Kaerjeng 97
- FTFULL TIME Progres Niederkorn 1–2 UN Kaerjeng 97
- FTProgres Niederkorn 1–2 UN Kaerjeng 97 · Progres Niederkorn win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassProgres Niederkorn are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Progres Niederkorn 48%, draw 22%, UN Kaerjeng 97 29%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Progres Niederkorn win48%
UN Kaerjeng 97 win29%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:30
RoundMatchday 10
Match timeline
All events
Progres NiederkornMIN
UN Kaerjeng 97Events will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Progres Niederkorn
UN Kaerjeng 97
Last match: 11 Oct · National Division
Last match: 11 Oct · National Division
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Progres Niederkorn a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Progres Niederkorn win | 48% | 47% | +1 |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | −2 |
| UN Kaerjeng 97 win | 29% | 29% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 57% | +5 |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 79% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 36% | +4 |
| Progres Niederkorn or draw | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Progres Niederkorn clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
| UN Kaerjeng 97 clean sheet | 16% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
7 meetings since 2022/23Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in National Division this season · since 22 Aug
PROGRES NIEDERKORN
UN KAERJENG 97
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 9 | +17 | 27 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 9 | +20 | 24 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 9 | +6 | 21 |
| 4 | Progres Niederkorn | 9 | +10 | 19 |
| 5 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 9 | +13 | 18 |
| 6 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 9 | +11 | 18 |
| 7 | Atert Bissen | 9 | +7 | 16 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 9 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | US Hostert | 9 | +1 | 11 |
| 10 | F91 Dudelange | 9 | −5 | 10 |
| 11 | Victoria Rosport | 9 | −6 | 8 |
| 12 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 9 | −6 | 7 |
| 13 | US Rumelange | 9 | −16 | 6 |
| 14 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 9 | −11 | 5 |
| 15 | Wiltz | 9 | −10 | 4 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 9 | −31 | – |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
UNA Strassen
FC Differdange 03
US Mondorf-les-bains
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Atert Bissen
Résidence Walferdange
US Hostert
F91 Dudelange
Victoria Rosport
AS Jeunesse Esch
US Rumelange
Etzella Ettelbruck
Wiltz
Swift Hesperange