Progres Niederkorn v Swift Hesperange prediction · National Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Progres NiederkornDrawSwift Hesperange

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Progres Niederkorn 67%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Progres Niederkorn are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Progres Niederkorn 67%, draw 18%, Swift Hesperange 15%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Progres Niederkorn v Swift HesperangeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Progres Niederkorn win67%

Draw18%

Swift Hesperange win15%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Progres Niederkorn

Swift Hesperange

7Days since last match13

Last match: 24 Oct · National Division

Last match: 18 Oct · National Division

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Progres Niederkorn	11	+7	19
16	Swift Hesperange	10	−36	–

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · progres niederkorn winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

67% The market–

Us67%

We make Progres Niederkorn a 67% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Progres Niederkorn v Swift Hesperange~~2.28 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in National Division this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places~~7 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Progres Niederkorn win	67%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Swift Hesperange win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Progres Niederkorn or draw	85%	–	–
Progres Niederkorn clean sheet	42%	–	–
Swift Hesperange clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.6%

0123450 4.5 4.3 1 9.9 8.4 3.9 2 10.6 9.1 4.1 3 8.0 6.7 3.0 4 4.8 3.9 5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Progres Niederkorn down, Swift Hesperange across0–5 goals a side shown (96.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,289 National Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.9% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Progres Niederkorn at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Swift Hesperange away: 0.50 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.28 goals for Progres Niederkorn, 0.89 for Swift Hesperange. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PRO 1–1 SWI · SWI 1–4 PRO · SWI 1–0 PRO · PRO 1–1 SWI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National Division this season · since 30 Aug

PROGRES NIEDERKORN

WWDWLL3–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–2

SWIFT HESPERANGE

LLLLLL0–6 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UNA Strassen	10	+17	28
2	FC Differdange 03	10	+22	27
3	US Mondorf-les-bains	10	+9	24
4	UN Kaerjeng 97	10	+12	21
5	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	10	+13	19
6	Atert Bissen	10	+11	19
7	Progres Niederkorn	11	+7	19
8	Résidence Walferdange	10	0	16
9	F91 Dudelange	10	0	13
10	US Hostert	10	−3	11
11	AS Jeunesse Esch	10	−5	10
12	Victoria Rosport	10	−8	8
13	Etzella Ettelbruck	11	−10	8
14	US Rumelange	10	−16	7
15	Wiltz	10	−13	4
16	Swift Hesperange	10	−36	–