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FC Differdange 03 v Résidence Walferdange

FC Differdange 03

6–0Full time

Résidence Walferdange

National Division · SUN 11 OCT · Stade Municipal de la Ville de Differdange

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

FC Differdange 03 6–0 Résidence Walferdange FC DIFFERDANGE 03 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Differdange 03 win~~67%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.167

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.072

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Differdange 03 win at 67%.
1′KICK-OFF FC Differdange 03 v Résidence Walferdange
3′Little has changed for our model: FC Differdange 03 67% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 67–20–13
6′Little has changed for our model: FC Differdange 03 67% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 66–20–13
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' FC Differdange 03 0–0 Résidence Walferdange
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' FC Differdange 03 1–0 Résidence Walferdange
20′FC Differdange 03 find the net on 15′. 1–0. 1–0 · 86–10–3
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' FC Differdange 03 win: 67% at kick-off, 86% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' FC Differdange 03 win: 67% at kick-off, 66% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' FC Differdange 03 win: 67% at kick-off, 66% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' FC Differdange 03 win: 67% at kick-off, 86% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' FC Differdange 03 win: 67% at kick-off, 66% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' FC Differdange 03 win: 67% at kick-off, 86% now
23′FC Differdange 03 ahead on 16′ through C. Jean. 1–0. 1–0 · 86–11–3
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' FC Differdange 03 win: 67% at kick-off, 66% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' FC Differdange 03 win: 67% at kick-off, 86% now
38′We said FC Differdange 03 at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–11–3
39′We said FC Differdange 03 at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–11–3
45′⚽ GOAL · 48' FC Differdange 03 2–0 Résidence Walferdange
45′HALF-TIME FC Differdange 03 2–0 Résidence Walferdange
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' FC Differdange 03 win: 67% at kick-off, 86% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 16' FC Differdange 03 2–0 Résidence Walferdange · C. Jean
46′SECOND HALF FC Differdange 03 2–0 Résidence Walferdange
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' FC Differdange 03 3–0 Résidence Walferdange
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' FC Differdange 03 4–0 Résidence Walferdange
69′⚽ GOAL · 68' FC Differdange 03 5–0 Résidence Walferdange
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' FC Differdange 03 6–0 Résidence Walferdange
FTFULL TIME FC Differdange 03 6–0 Résidence Walferdange
FTFC Differdange 03 6–0 Résidence Walferdange · FC Differdange 03 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

FC Differdange 03 win67%

Draw19%

Résidence Walferdange win14%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenueStade Municipal de la Ville de Differdange

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

FC Differdange 03

Résidence Walferdange

25Days since last match25

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	FC Differdange 03	8	+14	21
8	Résidence Walferdange	8	+6	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc differdange 03 winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

67% The market78%

Us67%

~~Market~~78%

We make FC Differdange 03 a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc differdange 03 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 79% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Differdange 03 win	67%	78%	−12
Draw	19%	14%	+5
Résidence Walferdange win	14%	8%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	55%	66%	−11
Both teams to score	47%	48%	0
Over 1.5 goals	78%	84%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	34%	45%	−12
FC Differdange 03 or draw	86%	92%	−6
FC Differdange 03 clean sheet	45%	–	–
Résidence Walferdange clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.8%

0123450 5.6 4.7 1 11.7 8.8 3.8 2 11.8 9.1 3.8 3 8.3 6.3 2.6 4 4.6 3.4 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Differdange 03 down, Résidence Walferdange across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,272 National Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.2% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

FC Differdange 03 at home: 2.50 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Résidence Walferdange away: 2.75 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

2.12 goals for FC Differdange 03, 0.81 for Résidence Walferdange. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in National Division

FC DIFFERDANGE 03

WWWWWW2–1 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 3–0

RÉSIDENCE WALFERDANGE

WLWLWW2–1 · 1–2 · 5–0 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UNA Strassen	8	+15	24
2	FC Differdange 03	8	+14	21
3	US Mondorf-les-bains	8	+5	18
4	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	8	+13	17
5	Progres Niederkorn	8	+8	16
6	UN Kaerjeng 97	8	+8	15
7	Atert Bissen	8	+7	15
8	Résidence Walferdange	8	+6	15
9	US Hostert	8	+3	11
10	AS Jeunesse Esch	8	−3	7
11	F91 Dudelange	8	−7	7
12	US Rumelange	8	−15	6
13	Victoria Rosport	8	−9	5
14	Etzella Ettelbruck	8	−9	5
15	Wiltz	8	−8	4
16	Swift Hesperange	8	−28	0