FC Differdange 03 v F91 Dudelange prediction · National Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FC Differdange 03DrawF91 Dudelange

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · FC Differdange 03 64%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Differdange 03 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Differdange 03 64%, draw 20%, F91 Dudelange 17%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on FC Differdange 03 v F91 DudelangeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

FC Differdange 03 win64%

Draw20%

F91 Dudelange win17%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStade Municipal de la Ville de Differdange

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Differdange 03

F91 Dudelange

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · National Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	FC Differdange 03	10	+22	27
9	F91 Dudelange	10	0	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc differdange 03 winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

64% The market69%

Us64%

~~Market~~69%

We make FC Differdange 03 a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Differdange 03 v F91 Dudelange~~2.12 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in National Division this season · since 30 Aug~~W6 D0 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 27 v 13~~2 v 9

~~The market · FC Differdange 03 win~~69% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Differdange 03 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Differdange 03 win	64%	69%	−5
Draw	20%	19%	+1
F91 Dudelange win	17%	12%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	59%	61%	−2
Both teams to score	52%	52%	0
Over 1.5 goals	80%	81%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	37%	41%	−4
FC Differdange 03 or draw	83%	88%	−5
FC Differdange 03 clean sheet	40%	–	–
F91 Dudelange clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.3%

0123450 4.8 4.8 2.2 1 10.2 9.0 4.4 2 10.3 9.4 4.5 3 7.3 6.6 3.1 4 4.0 3.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Differdange 03 down, F91 Dudelange across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,289 National Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.9% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Differdange 03 at home: 3.17 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). F91 Dudelange away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.12 goals for FC Differdange 03, 0.95 for F91 Dudelange. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FDU 0–0 FCD · FCD 2–2 FDU · FCD 2–2 FDU · FDU 0–1 FCD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National Division this season · since 30 Aug

FC DIFFERDANGE 03

WWWWWW2–0 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 6–0 · 5–3

F91 DUDELANGE

WLDLWW2–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 2–4 · 3–1 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UNA Strassen	10	+17	28
2	FC Differdange 03	10	+22	27
3	US Mondorf-les-bains	10	+9	24
4	UN Kaerjeng 97	10	+12	21
5	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	10	+13	19
6	Atert Bissen	10	+11	19
7	Progres Niederkorn	11	+7	19
8	Résidence Walferdange	10	0	16
9	F91 Dudelange	10	0	13
10	US Hostert	10	−3	11
11	AS Jeunesse Esch	10	−5	10
12	Victoria Rosport	10	−8	8
13	Etzella Ettelbruck	11	−10	8
14	US Rumelange	10	−16	7
15	Wiltz	10	−13	4
16	Swift Hesperange	10	−36	–