F91 Dudelange v Swift Hesperange prediction · National Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

F91 Dudelange 5–0 Swift Hesperange F91 DUDELANGE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said F91 Dudelange win~~69%

~~The market said~~84%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.149

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.040

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said F91 Dudelange win at 69%.
1′Much as we predicted: F91 Dudelange was 69% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 68–17–15
1′KICK-OFF F91 Dudelange v Swift Hesperange
12′F91 Dudelange find the net on 12′. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–10–5
12′We published F91 Dudelange at 69%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–10–5
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' F91 Dudelange 1–0 Swift Hesperange
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' F91 Dudelange win: 69% at kick-off, 85% now
27′We published F91 Dudelange at 69%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–11–4
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 84–11–4
34′A goal for F91 Dudelange on 33′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
34′⚽ GOAL · 33' F91 Dudelange 2–0 Swift Hesperange
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' F91 Dudelange win: 69% at kick-off, 96% now
35′We published F91 Dudelange at 69%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
45′HALF-TIME F91 Dudelange 2–0 Swift Hesperange
46′SECOND HALF F91 Dudelange 2–0 Swift Hesperange
61′F91 Dudelange score on 60′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
61′We published F91 Dudelange at 69%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' F91 Dudelange 3–0 Swift Hesperange
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' F91 Dudelange win: 69% at kick-off, over 99% now
66′F91 Dudelange find the net on 66′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
66′4 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' F91 Dudelange 4–0 Swift Hesperange
84′A goal for F91 Dudelange on 84′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
84′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' F91 Dudelange 5–0 Swift Hesperange
FTFULL TIME F91 Dudelange 5–0 Swift Hesperange
FTF91 Dudelange 5–0 Swift Hesperange · F91 Dudelange win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

F91 Dudelange are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: F91 Dudelange 69%, draw 17%, Swift Hesperange 15%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on F91 Dudelange v Swift HesperangeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

F91 Dudelange win69%

Draw17%

Swift Hesperange win15%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStade Jos Nosbaum

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

F91 Dudelange

Swift Hesperange

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · National Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	F91 Dudelange	9	−5	10
16	Swift Hesperange	9	−31	–

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · f91 dudelange winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

69% The market84%

Us69%

~~Market~~84%

We make F91 Dudelange a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 84%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · F91 Dudelange v Swift Hesperange~~2.48 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in National Division this season · since 23 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places~~10 v 16

~~The market · F91 Dudelange win~~84% · ours 69%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · F91 Dudelange win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 84% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
F91 Dudelange win	69%	84%	−15
Draw	17%	11%	+6
Swift Hesperange win	15%	5%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	67%	72%	−5
Both teams to score	56%	46%	+10
Over 1.5 goals	85%	88%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	46%	54%	−8
F91 Dudelange or draw	85%	95%	−10
F91 Dudelange clean sheet	38%	–	–
Swift Hesperange clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.3%

0123450 3.3 3.5 1 8.0 7.6 4.0 2 9.3 9.0 4.6 3 7.6 7.2 3.6 4 4.8 4.5 2.2 5 2.6 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+F91 Dudelange down, Swift Hesperange across0–5 goals a side shown (94.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,281 National Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.5% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

F91 Dudelange at home: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Swift Hesperange away: 0.50 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.48 goals for F91 Dudelange, 1.00 for Swift Hesperange. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SWI 0–3 FDU · FDU 3–1 SWI · SWI 0–4 FDU · FDU 4–3 SWI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National Division this season · since 23 Aug

F91 DUDELANGE

WWLDLW3–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 2–4 · 3–1

SWIFT HESPERANGE

LLLLLL0–2 · 0–6 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UNA Strassen	9	+17	27
2	FC Differdange 03	9	+20	24
3	UN Kaerjeng 97	10	+12	21
4	US Mondorf-les-bains	9	+6	21
5	Progres Niederkorn	10	+9	19
6	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	9	+13	18
7	Atert Bissen	9	+7	16
8	Résidence Walferdange	9	0	15
9	US Hostert	9	+1	11
10	F91 Dudelange	9	−5	10
11	Victoria Rosport	9	−6	8
12	AS Jeunesse Esch	9	−6	7
13	US Rumelange	9	−16	6
14	Etzella Ettelbruck	9	−11	5
15	Wiltz	9	−10	4
16	Swift Hesperange	9	−31	–