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Etzella Ettelbruck v Progres Niederkorn

Etzella Ettelbruck
2–0Full time
Progres Niederkorn

National Division · SAT 24 OCT · Stade Am Deich

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48
Etzella Ettelbruck 2–0 Progres Niederkorn PROGRES NIEDERKORN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Progres Niederkorn win60%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.074

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 14 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Progres Niederkorn win at 60%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: Progres Niederkorn was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 18–22–60
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Etzella Ettelbruck v Progres Niederkorn
  4. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Progres Niederkorn win: 60% at kick-off, 50% now
  5. 40′We said Progres Niederkorn at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 48%. 0–0 · 18–34–48
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Etzella Ettelbruck 0–0 Progres Niederkorn
  7. 46′SECOND HALF Etzella Ettelbruck 0–0 Progres Niederkorn
  8. 49′We said Progres Niederkorn at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 17–39–44
  9. 55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 16–43–41
  10. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Progres Niederkorn win: 60% at kick-off, 40% now
  11. 57′We said Progres Niederkorn at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 16–45–39
  12. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Progres Niederkorn win 43%)
  13. 64′We said Progres Niederkorn at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 14–51–34
  14. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Progres Niederkorn win: 60% at kick-off, 30% now
  15. 70′We said Progres Niederkorn at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 12–59–29
  16. 75′We said Progres Niederkorn at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 10–66–24
  17. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Progres Niederkorn win: 60% at kick-off, 20% now
  18. 79′We said Progres Niederkorn at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 8–73–19
  19. 80′Etzella Ettelbruck score on 80′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 83–15–2
  20. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Etzella Ettelbruck 1–0 Progres Niederkorn
  21. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Progres Niederkorn win: 60% at kick-off, 2% now
  22. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Etzella Ettelbruck win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 73%)
  23. 81′We said Progres Niederkorn at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–0 · 84–14–1
  24. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Progres Niederkorn win: 60% at kick-off, under 1% now
  25. 92′Etzella Ettelbruck find the net on 90′. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  26. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Etzella Ettelbruck 2–0 Progres Niederkorn
  27. FTFULL TIME Etzella Ettelbruck 2–0 Progres Niederkorn
  28. FTEtzella Ettelbruck 2–0 Progres Niederkorn · Progres Niederkorn win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Progres Niederkorn are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Etzella Ettelbruck 18%, draw 22%, Progres Niederkorn 60%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Etzella Ettelbruck v Progres NiederkornBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Etzella Ettelbruck win18%
Draw22%
Progres Niederkorn win60%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStade Am Deich

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Etzella Ettelbruck

Progres Niederkorn

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · National Division

Last match: 17 Oct · National Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Progres Niederkorn10+919
14Etzella Ettelbruck10−125

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · progres niederkorn winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off
60% The market–
Us60%

We make Progres Niederkorn a 60% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.9, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Etzella Ettelbruck v Progres Niederkorn0.90 – 1.89
Form · last six in National Division this season · since 30 AugW1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 5 v 1914 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 16:05
Our probability · Progres Niederkorn win

Published at 61%, 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Etzella Ettelbruck win18%––
Draw22%––
Progres Niederkorn win60%––
Over 2.5 goals52%––
Both teams to score48%––
Over 1.5 goals76%––
Over 3.5 goals31%––
Etzella Ettelbruck or draw40%––
Etzella Ettelbruck clean sheet16%––
Progres Niederkorn clean sheet42%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.0%
0123450 6.5 12.0 10.8 6.9 3.4 1 5.9 10.0 9.2 5.7 2.8 2 2.6 4.7 4.2 2.6 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Etzella Ettelbruck down, Progres Niederkorn across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.25
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsPRO 3–1 ETZ · ETZ 0–1 PRO · ETZ 1–1 PRO · PRO 6–0 ETZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National Division this season · since 30 Aug

ETZELLA ETTELBRUCK

LWLDLL0–5 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–1

PROGRES NIEDERKORN

LWWDWL1–2 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1UNA Strassen10+1728
2FC Differdange 0310+2227
3US Mondorf-les-bains10+924
4UN Kaerjeng 9710+1221
5Racing FC Union Luxembourg10+1319
6Atert Bissen10+1119
7Progres Niederkorn10+919
8Résidence Walferdange10016
9F91 Dudelange10013
10US Hostert10−311
11AS Jeunesse Esch10−510
12Victoria Rosport10−88
13US Rumelange10−167
14Etzella Ettelbruck10−125
15Wiltz10−134
16Swift Hesperange10−36–

The competition's standings before kick-off.