AS Jeunesse Esch v Etzella Ettelbruck prediction · National Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

AS Jeunesse Esch 1–0 Etzella Ettelbruck AS JEUNESSE ESCH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said AS Jeunesse Esch win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.254

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AS Jeunesse Esch win at 59%.
1′Little has changed for our model: AS Jeunesse Esch 59% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–21–20
1′KICK-OFF AS Jeunesse Esch v Etzella Ettelbruck
3′GOAL DISALLOWED · 3' AS Jeunesse Esch
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' AS Jeunesse Esch win: 59% at kick-off, 58% now
6′A goal for AS Jeunesse Esch on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–13–7
6′We said AS Jeunesse Esch at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–13–7
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' AS Jeunesse Esch 1–0 Etzella Ettelbruck
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' AS Jeunesse Esch win: 59% at kick-off, 80% now
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' AS Jeunesse Esch 1–0 Etzella Ettelbruck
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' AS Jeunesse Esch win: 59% at kick-off, 80% now
10′T. Flick scores for AS Jeunesse Esch on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–13–7
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 80–14–6
45′HALF-TIME AS Jeunesse Esch 1–0 Etzella Ettelbruck
46′SECOND HALF AS Jeunesse Esch 1–0 Etzella Ettelbruck
66′We said AS Jeunesse Esch at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' AS Jeunesse Esch win: 59% at kick-off, 89% now
78′We said AS Jeunesse Esch at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
85′We said AS Jeunesse Esch at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' AS Jeunesse Esch win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME AS Jeunesse Esch 1–0 Etzella Ettelbruck
FTAS Jeunesse Esch 1–0 Etzella Ettelbruck · AS Jeunesse Esch win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AS Jeunesse Esch are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AS Jeunesse Esch 59%, draw 21%, Etzella Ettelbruck 20%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on AS Jeunesse Esch v Etzella EttelbruckBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

AS Jeunesse Esch win59%

Draw21%

Etzella Ettelbruck win20%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AS Jeunesse Esch

Etzella Ettelbruck

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · National Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	AS Jeunesse Esch	9	−6	7
14	Etzella Ettelbruck	9	−11	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · as jeunesse esch winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make AS Jeunesse Esch a 59% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AS Jeunesse Esch v Etzella Ettelbruck~~1.99 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in National Division this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 7 v 5~~12 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AS Jeunesse Esch win	59%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Etzella Ettelbruck win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
AS Jeunesse Esch or draw	80%	–	–
AS Jeunesse Esch clean sheet	37%	–	–
Etzella Ettelbruck clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.1%

0123450 5.2 5.5 2.8 1 10.1 9.6 5.1 2 9.4 9.3 4.8 3 6.3 6.1 3.1 4 3.3 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AS Jeunesse Esch down, Etzella Ettelbruck across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,281 National Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.5% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AS Jeunesse Esch at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Etzella Ettelbruck away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for AS Jeunesse Esch, 1.03 for Etzella Ettelbruck. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ETZ 3–0 ASJ · ASJ 6–0 ETZ · ASJ 5–1 ETZ · ETZ 2–1 ASJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National Division this season · since 23 Aug

AS JEUNESSE ESCH

LWWLDL1–3 · 5–2 · 5–1 · 1–5 · 1–1 · 1–4

ETZELLA ETTELBRUCK

LLWLDL0–1 · 0–5 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UNA Strassen	9	+17	27
2	FC Differdange 03	9	+20	24
3	UN Kaerjeng 97	10	+12	21
4	US Mondorf-les-bains	9	+6	21
5	Progres Niederkorn	10	+9	19
6	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	9	+13	18
7	Atert Bissen	9	+7	16
8	Résidence Walferdange	9	0	15
9	US Hostert	9	+1	11
10	F91 Dudelange	9	−5	10
11	Victoria Rosport	9	−6	8
12	AS Jeunesse Esch	9	−6	7
13	US Rumelange	9	−16	6
14	Etzella Ettelbruck	9	−11	5
15	Wiltz	9	−10	4
16	Swift Hesperange	9	−31	–