Minija v Kauno Žalgiris prediction · Cup

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:05

Minija 0–3 Kauno Žalgiris KAUNO ŽALGIRIS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kauno Žalgiris win~~77%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.082

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.190

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kauno Žalgiris win at 77%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kauno Žalgiris was 77% before kick-off and our model makes it 77% now. 0–0 · 7–16–77
4′Much as we predicted: Kauno Žalgiris was 77% before kick-off and our model makes it 76% now. 0–0 · 7–16–76
23′Kauno Žalgiris find the net on 22′. 0–1. 0–1 · 1–7–92
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Kauno Žalgiris win: 77% at kick-off, 92% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Kauno Žalgiris win: 77% at kick-off, 71% now
37′PENALTY MISSED · 37' Kauno Žalgiris
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Kauno Žalgiris win: 77% at kick-off, 92% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Kauno Žalgiris win: 77% at kick-off, 71% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Kauno Žalgiris win: 77% at kick-off, 92% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Kauno Žalgiris win: 77% at kick-off, 71% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Kauno Žalgiris win: 77% at kick-off, 71% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Kauno Žalgiris win: 77% at kick-off, 92% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Kauno Žalgiris win: 77% at kick-off, 71% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Kauno Žalgiris win: 77% at kick-off, 92% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Kauno Žalgiris win: 77% at kick-off, 71% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Kauno Žalgiris win: 77% at kick-off, 92% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Kauno Žalgiris win: 77% at kick-off, 71% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Kauno Žalgiris win: 77% at kick-off, 92% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Kauno Žalgiris win: 77% at kick-off, 92% now
45′HALF-TIME Minija 0–1 Kauno Žalgiris
46′SECOND HALF Minija 0–1 Kauno Žalgiris
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Minija 0–2 Kauno Žalgiris
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Kauno Žalgiris
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Minija 0–3 Kauno Žalgiris
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Kauno Žalgiris
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Minija
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Kauno Žalgiris
FTFULL TIME Minija 0–3 Kauno Žalgiris
FTMinija 0–3 Kauno Žalgiris · Kauno Žalgiris win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Minija win7%

Draw16%

Kauno Žalgiris win77%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:15

Line-ups

Minija

Kauno Žalgiris

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Minija

Kauno Žalgiris

40Days since last match38

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kauno Žalgiris	4	+11	12
2	Minija	5	+14	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Minija

Formation not confirmed

2 V. Gaudiesius

3 E. Mockus

4 M. Diawara

6 M. Sidibe

7 J. Kasparavicius

9 D. Nwegbo

14 N. Komissarov

21 L. Zingertas

27 S. Amirzian

45 K. Aderounmu

43 B. Diawara

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · V. Vranes

22 · A. Pipiras

8 · D. Pipiras

15 · A. Sveistrys

11 · A. Putvinas

10 · Lee Min-Woo

5 · E. Kirjanov

13 · G. Gumbaravicius

20 · M. Traore

Kauno Žalgiris

Formation not confirmed

22 D. Mikelionis

7 A. Benchaib

9 L. Krekovic

14 V. Slivka

20 A. Kalik

23 A. Hernandez

24 M. Burba

27 G. Debeljuh

33 M. Konatar

62 L. I. Kastrati

77 R. Lekiatas

Coach · Eivinas Cerniauskas

Substitutes

55 · T. Svedkauskas

3 · A. Tolordava

4 · L. Racic

8 · Y. Karashima

10 · G. Sirgedas

11 · F. Cernych

15 · Leo Ribeiro

17 · I. Fiolic

19 · Renan Oliveira

32 · F. Baldassarra

37 · N. Iyobosa Edokpolor

45 · J. Moutachy

Our number · kauno žalgiris winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

77% The market65%

Us77%

~~Market~~65%

We make Kauno Žalgiris a 77% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.6–2.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kauno žalgiris win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Minija win	7%	15%	−8
Draw	16%	20%	−4
Kauno Žalgiris win	77%	65%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	56%	60%	−4
Both teams to score	39%	54%	−15
Over 1.5 goals	79%	81%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	38%	−5
Minija or draw	23%	35%	−13
Minija clean sheet	10%	–	–
Kauno Žalgiris clean sheet	57%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 15.0%

0123450 5.7 12.5 15.0 11.7 6.9 3.21 2.8 7.4 8.4 6.6 3.9 2 2.0 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Minija down, Kauno Žalgiris across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 406,070 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 11 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Minija play in the 1 Lyga, Kauno Žalgiris in the A Lyga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Minija are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting in this competition in our records, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

0.56 goals for Minija, 2.35 for Kauno Žalgiris. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Cup

MINIJA

LWDDWW0–1 · 12–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–2

KAUNO ŽALGIRIS

DLWWWW2–2 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kauno Žalgiris	4	+11	12
2	Minija	5	+14	11
3	BFA	4	+6	9
4	Šiauliai	4	+5	9
5	Dainava	5	+7	8
6	TransINVEST Vilnius	3	+11	7
7	Pempininkai Gargždai	3	+3	7
8	Babrungas	3	+10	6
9	Ataka Vilnius	3	+9	6
10	Garliava	3	+5	6
11	Panevėžys	3	+4	6
12	Atmosfera	3	0	6
13	Banga	2	+4	4
14	Džiugas Telšiai	3	+1	4
15	Klaipėdos FM	3	−1	4
16	Venta	3	−8	4
17	Jonava	2	+12	3
18	Neptūną Klaipėda	2	+10	3
19	Vilnius FA	2	+9	3
20	Be1 NFA	2	+4	3
21	Sirijus Klaipėda	2	+2	3
22	Sveikata	2	+2	3
23	Alternatyvus FK	2	+1	3
24	Hegelmann Litauen	2	+1	3
25	Viltis Vilnius	2	−1	3
26	FK Trakai	2	−3	3
27	OG Kaišiadorys	1	0	1
28	Kaunas City FA	1	0	1
29	Suduva Marijampole	1	0	1
30	FK Jurbarko Imsre	1	0	1
31	Ekranas	1	0	1
32	FKS Ukmergė	1	0	1
33	Futboliukas Vilnius	1	0	1
34	Nevėžis	1	0	1
35	Radviliškis	2	−2	1
36	Tauras	2	−3	1
37	Vilniaus Vytis	2	−4	1
38	Širvėna Biržai	2	−4	1
39	Granitas	1	−1	0
40	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	1	−1	0
41	Tera	1	−2	0
42	FK Ketera	1	−2	0
43	Nemunas	1	−2	0
44	Utenis Utena	1	−3	0
45	Svyturys	1	−3	0
46	Nadruvis	1	−4	0
47	FK Sumskas	1	−5	0
48	Trivartis Vilnius	1	−5	0
49	Šilutė	1	−5	0
50	FK Inter Nemencine	1	−6	0
51	VGTU Vilkai	1	−7	0
52	Saned Joniškis	1	−9	0
53	Cementininkas Akmenė	1	−10	0
54	Geležinis Vilkas	1	−12	0
55	Sendvaris	1	−12	0
56	Utenos Utena	1	−16	0