Transinvest 2 v FA Šiauliai II prediction · 1 Lyga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Transinvest 2DrawFA Šiauliai II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Transinvest 2 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Transinvest 2 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Transinvest 2 48%, draw 19%, FA Šiauliai II 33%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on Transinvest 2 v FA Šiauliai IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Transinvest 2 win48%

Draw19%

FA Šiauliai II win33%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Transinvest 2

FA Šiauliai II

10Days since last match9

Last match: 16 Oct · 1 Lyga

Last match: 17 Oct · 1 Lyga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Transinvest 2	27	−27	25
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	−30	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · transinvest 2 winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

48% The market47%

Us48%

~~Market~~47%

We make Transinvest 2 a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.2–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Transinvest 2 v FA Šiauliai II~~2.19 – 1.78

~~Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 25 v 18~~13 v 15

~~The market · Transinvest 2 win~~47% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Transinvest 2 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Transinvest 2 win	48%	47%	+1
Draw	19%	23%	−4
FA Šiauliai II win	33%	30%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	75%	69%	+6
Both teams to score	72%	65%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	89%	86%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	55%	50%	+5
Transinvest 2 or draw	67%	70%	−3
Transinvest 2 clean sheet	18%	–	–
FA Šiauliai II clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.8%

0123450 4.4 3.1 1 5.1 6.6 6.5 3.8 2 4.6 7.8 6.8 4.0 3 3.3 5.6 4.9 2.9 4 3.1 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Transinvest 2 down, FA Šiauliai II across0–5 goals a side shown (95.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,353 1 Lyga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1 Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 215 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Transinvest 2 at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). FA Šiauliai II away: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.19 goals for Transinvest 2, 1.78 for FA Šiauliai II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FAS 1–2 TRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 28 Aug

TRANSINVEST 2

LLWLDW1–2 · 0–3 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0

FA ŠIAULIAI II

LLLWDL1–2 · 1–5 · 0–2 · 6–2 · 3–3 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Minija	27	+53	67
2	Babrungas	27	+35	67
3	Be1 NFA	27	+21	57
4	Žalgiris II	28	+8	49
5	BFA	28	+1	46
6	Dainava	27	+12	44
7	Tauras	27	+11	44
8	Neptūną Klaipėda	28	−2	44
9	Atmosfera	27	+8	37
10	Jonava	28	−7	30
11	Garliava	28	−3	29
12	Hegelmann II	27	−25	26
13	Transinvest 2	27	−27	25
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	−22	23
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	−30	18
16	Ekranas	28	−33	18