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Transinvest 2 v Ekranas

Transinvest 2

1–1Full time

Ekranas

1 Lyga · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Transinvest 2 1–1 Ekranas TRANSINVEST 2 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Transinvest 2 win~~52%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.025

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.906

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Transinvest 2 win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Transinvest 2 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–21–27
1′KICK-OFF Transinvest 2 v Ekranas
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Transinvest 2 1–0 Ekranas
40′Transinvest 2 find the net on 37′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–9
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Transinvest 2 win: 52% at kick-off, 74% now
45′We said Transinvest 2 at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–18–8
45′HALF-TIME Transinvest 2 1–0 Ekranas
47′SECOND HALF Transinvest 2 1–0 Ekranas
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Transinvest 2 1–1 Ekranas
63′A goal for Ekranas on 52′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–44–22
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Transinvest 2 win: 52% at kick-off, 34% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Transinvest 2 win 34%)
73′⚽ GOAL · 36' Transinvest 2 1–1 Ekranas · L. Gujis
73′⚽ GOAL · 52' Transinvest 2 1–1 Ekranas
82′We said Transinvest 2 at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 1–1 · 15–74–11
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Transinvest 2 win: 52% at kick-off, 15% now
FTFULL TIME Transinvest 2 1–1 Ekranas
FTTransinvest 2 1–1 Ekranas · Transinvest 2 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Transinvest 2 win52%

Draw18%

Ekranas win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · transinvest 2 winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

52% The market51%

Us52%

~~Market~~51%

We make Transinvest 2 a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.2–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · transinvest 2 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 52% now. The market has gone from 57% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Transinvest 2 win	52%	51%	+2
Draw	18%	24%	−5
Ekranas win	29%	26%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	71%	66%	+4
Both teams to score	67%	66%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	87%	84%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	50%	46%	+4
Transinvest 2 or draw	71%	74%	−4
Transinvest 2 clean sheet	22%	–	–
Ekranas clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.4%

0123450 5.1 3.1 1 6.5 7.3 6.3 3.3 2 5.7 8.4 6.4 3.3 3 4.1 6.0 4.5 2.3 4 2.3 3.3 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Transinvest 2 down, Ekranas across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,340 1 Lyga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1 Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 202 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Transinvest 2 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Ekranas away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.17 goals for Transinvest 2, 1.54 for Ekranas. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~EKR 4–0 TRA

Form · last six in 1 Lyga

TRANSINVEST 2

WLLLWL2–0 · 3–4 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 4–1 · 1–2

EKRANAS

LLLWLL0–5 · 2–3 · 0–5 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–6

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Minija	25	+55	67
2	Babrungas	25	+32	61
3	Be1 NFA	25	+18	51
4	Žalgiris II	26	+7	46
5	Neptūną Klaipėda	25	+3	44
6	Tauras	25	+12	43
7	BFA	26	+3	43
8	Dainava	26	+10	41
9	Atmosfera	24	+4	30
10	Jonava	25	−5	27
11	Garliava	25	−2	25
12	Kauno Žalgiris II	26	−20	23
13	Hegelmann II	25	−26	22
14	Transinvest 2	25	−29	21
15	FA Šiauliai II	26	−29	18
16	Ekranas	25	−33	14