Tauras v Be1 NFA prediction · 1 Lyga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Tauras 1–2 Be1 NFA TAURAS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tauras win~~46%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.728

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.584

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tauras win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tauras 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–22–32
1′KICK-OFF Tauras v Be1 NFA
39′Be1 NFA find the net on 39′. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–24–62
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Tauras 0–1 Be1 NFA
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Tauras win: 46% at kick-off, 14% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Be1 NFA win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Tauras win 38%)
40′We said Tauras at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–24–62
40′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 13–24–62
45′HALF-TIME Tauras 0–1 Be1 NFA
46′SECOND HALF Tauras 0–1 Be1 NFA
50′A goal for Tauras on 49′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–40–25
50′We said Tauras at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–40–25
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Tauras 1–1 Be1 NFA
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Tauras win: 46% at kick-off, 34% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Be1 NFA win 65%)
61′We said Tauras at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–49–22
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Tauras win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
69′We said Tauras at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–57–18
75′We said Tauras at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–66–15
76′Be1 NFA score on 76′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–16–82
76′We said Tauras at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–2 · 2–16–82
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Tauras 1–2 Be1 NFA
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Tauras win: 46% at kick-off, 2% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Be1 NFA win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 68%)
77′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 2–15–83
89′Tauras are down to ten from 88′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–2 · 0–5–94
89′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Tauras
FTFULL TIME Tauras 1–2 Be1 NFA
FTTauras 1–2 Be1 NFA · Tauras win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tauras are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tauras 46%, draw 22%, Be1 NFA 32%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Tauras v Be1 NFABefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Tauras win46%

Draw22%

Be1 NFA win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tauras

Be1 NFA

8Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · 1 Lyga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Be1 NFA	26	+20	54
5	Tauras	26	+12	44

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tauras winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

46% The market36%

Us46%

~~Market~~36%

We make Tauras a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tauras v Be1 NFA~~1.58 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 21 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 44 v 54~~5 v 3

~~The market · Tauras win~~36% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tauras win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tauras win	46%	36%	+10
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Be1 NFA win	32%	38%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	53%	59%	−6
Both teams to score	54%	62%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	75%	79%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	31%	38%	−7
Tauras or draw	68%	62%	+6
Tauras clean sheet	29%	–	–
Be1 NFA clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.7%

0123450 5.1 8.8 4.7 1 10.7 10.3 7.1 3.0 2 7.4 8.9 5.5 2.3 3 3.9 4.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tauras down, Be1 NFA across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,353 1 Lyga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1 Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 215 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 1.60 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tauras at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Be1 NFA away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Tauras, 1.25 for Be1 NFA. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~BEN 1–0 TAU · BEN 0–2 TAU · TAU 1–0 BEN · TAU 0–1 BEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 21 Aug

TAURAS

DDLLWD1–1 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 4–4

BE1 NFA

WWWWDW5–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Minija	26	+54	67
2	Babrungas	27	+35	67
3	Be1 NFA	26	+20	54
4	Žalgiris II	28	+8	49
5	Tauras	26	+12	44
6	Dainava	27	+12	44
7	Neptūną Klaipėda	27	0	44
8	BFA	27	0	43
9	Atmosfera	26	+5	34
10	Jonava	27	−4	30
11	Garliava	28	−3	29
12	Hegelmann II	27	−25	26
13	Transinvest 2	27	−27	25
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	−22	23
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	−30	18
16	Ekranas	27	−35	15