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Neptūną Klaipėda v Hegelmann II
1 Lyga · SAT 10 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Neptūną Klaipėda win at 71%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Neptūną Klaipėda was 71% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–17–12
- 1′KICK-OFF Neptūną Klaipėda v Hegelmann II
- 43′We said Neptūną Klaipėda at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 56%. 0–0 · 56–29–14
- 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Neptūną Klaipėda win: 71% at kick-off, 56% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Neptūną Klaipėda 0–0 Hegelmann II
- 46′SECOND HALF Neptūną Klaipėda 0–0 Hegelmann II
- 50′We said Neptūną Klaipėda at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 53%. 0–0 · 53–33–14
- 70′We said Neptūną Klaipėda at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–53–11
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Neptūną Klaipėda win: 71% at kick-off, 36% now
- 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Neptūną Klaipėda win 36%)
- 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Neptūną Klaipėda 0–1 Hegelmann II
- 90′Hegelmann II find the net on 88′. 0–1. 0–1 · 0–0–100
- 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Neptūną Klaipėda win: 71% at kick-off, 0% now
- 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Hegelmann II win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Draw 0%)
- FTFULL TIME Neptūną Klaipėda 0–1 Hegelmann II
- FTNeptūną Klaipėda 0–1 Hegelmann II · Neptūną Klaipėda win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
Match updates
Recorded match details below.
Timeline
Events will appear when the match starts.
Pre-match prediction
Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15
Match information
SAT 10 OCT · 12:00
The game so far
Recorded statisticsMatch statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Players on the pitch
Recorded line-upsLine-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Neptūną Klaipėda a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–0.9.
Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 68% to 56% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neptūną Klaipėda win | 71% | 56% | +14 |
| Draw | 15% | 22% | −7 |
| Hegelmann II win | 14% | 21% | −7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 65% | −11 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | 85% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 49% | −5 |
| Neptūną Klaipėda or draw | 86% | 79% | +7 |
| Neptūną Klaipėda clean sheet | 40% | – | – |
| Hegelmann II clean sheet | 9% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
5 meetings since 2024Form · last six in 1 Lyga
NEPTŪNĄ KLAIPĖDA
HEGELMANN II
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minija | 25 | +55 | 67 |
| 2 | Babrungas | 25 | +32 | 61 |
| 3 | Be1 NFA | 25 | +18 | 51 |
| 4 | Žalgiris II | 26 | +7 | 46 |
| 5 | Neptūną Klaipėda | 25 | +3 | 44 |
| 6 | Tauras | 25 | +12 | 43 |
| 7 | BFA | 26 | +3 | 43 |
| 8 | Dainava | 26 | +10 | 41 |
| 9 | Atmosfera | 24 | +4 | 30 |
| 10 | Jonava | 25 | −5 | 27 |
| 11 | Garliava | 25 | −2 | 25 |
| 12 | Kauno Žalgiris II | 26 | −20 | 23 |
| 13 | Hegelmann II | 25 | −26 | 22 |
| 14 | Transinvest 2 | 25 | −29 | 21 |
| 15 | FA Šiauliai II | 26 | −29 | 18 |
| 16 | Ekranas | 25 | −33 | 14 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.
Minija
Babrungas
Be1 NFA
Žalgiris II
Tauras
BFA
Dainava
Atmosfera
Jonava
Garliava
Kauno Žalgiris II
Transinvest 2
FA Šiauliai II
Ekranas