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Neptūną Klaipėda v Hegelmann II

Neptūną Klaipėda
0–1Full time
Hegelmann II

1 Lyga · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35
Neptūną Klaipėda 0–1 Hegelmann II NEPTŪNĄ KLAIPĖDA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Neptūną Klaipėda win71%
The market said56%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.267
The market’s Brier score0.986

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Neptūną Klaipėda win at 71%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Neptūną Klaipėda was 71% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–17–12
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Neptūną Klaipėda v Hegelmann II
  4. 43′We said Neptūną Klaipėda at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 56%. 0–0 · 56–29–14
  5. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Neptūną Klaipėda win: 71% at kick-off, 56% now
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Neptūną Klaipėda 0–0 Hegelmann II
  7. 46′SECOND HALF Neptūną Klaipėda 0–0 Hegelmann II
  8. 50′We said Neptūną Klaipėda at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 53%. 0–0 · 53–33–14
  9. 70′We said Neptūną Klaipėda at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–53–11
  10. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Neptūną Klaipėda win: 71% at kick-off, 36% now
  11. 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Neptūną Klaipėda win 36%)
  12. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Neptūną Klaipėda 0–1 Hegelmann II
  13. 90′Hegelmann II find the net on 88′. 0–1. 0–1 · 0–0–100
  14. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Neptūną Klaipėda win: 71% at kick-off, 0% now
  15. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Hegelmann II win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Draw 0%)
  16. FTFULL TIME Neptūną Klaipėda 0–1 Hegelmann II
  17. FTNeptūną Klaipėda 0–1 Hegelmann II · Neptūną Klaipėda win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Neptūną Klaipėda win71%
Draw15%
Hegelmann II win14%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · neptūną klaipėda winPublished 10 Oct 12:19
71% The market56%
Us71%
Market56%

We make Neptūną Klaipėda a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70%75% 9 OCT 06:1910 OCT 11:19
Our probability · neptūną klaipėda win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 68% to 56% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Neptūną Klaipėda win71%56%+14
Draw15%22%−7
Hegelmann II win14%21%−7
Over 2.5 goals65%66%−1
Both teams to score54%65%−11
Over 1.5 goals84%85%−2
Over 3.5 goals44%49%−5
Neptūną Klaipėda or draw86%79%+7
Neptūną Klaipėda clean sheet40%––
Hegelmann II clean sheet9%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.1%
0123450 2.8 4.2 1 9.4 6.9 3.6 2 10.1 9.2 4.3 3 8.1 7.4 3.4 4 5.0 4.5 2.1 5 2.6 2.3
under 2% 5% 12%+Neptūną Klaipėda down, Hegelmann II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting3.20
Over 2.53 of 5
Both scored2 of 5
Last meetingsHEG 2–3 NEP · HEG 0–1 NEP · NEP 2–0 HEG · HEG 2–1 NEP

Form · last six in 1 Lyga

NEPTŪNĄ KLAIPĖDA

LLWLWL0–4 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–2

HEGELMANN II

LWLWLL1–2 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 5–1 · 1–4 · 0–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Minija25+5567
2Babrungas25+3261
3Be1 NFA25+1851
4Žalgiris II26+746
5Neptūną Klaipėda25+344
6Tauras25+1243
7BFA26+343
8Dainava26+1041
9Atmosfera24+430
10Jonava25−527
11Garliava25−225
12Kauno Žalgiris II26−2023
13Hegelmann II25−2622
14Transinvest 225−2921
15FA Šiauliai II26−2918
16Ekranas25−3314

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.