Neptūną Klaipėda v Ekranas prediction · 1 Lyga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Neptūną Klaipėda 0–2 Ekranas NEPTŪNĄ KLAIPĖDA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Neptūną Klaipėda win~~71%

~~The market said~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.277

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.338

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Neptūną Klaipėda win at 71%.
1′Much as we predicted: Neptūną Klaipėda was 71% before kick-off and our model makes it 71% now. 0–0 · 71–16–14
1′KICK-OFF Neptūną Klaipėda v Ekranas
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Neptūną Klaipėda win: 71% at kick-off, 61% now
37′We said Neptūną Klaipėda at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–26–14
45′HALF-TIME Neptūną Klaipėda 0–0 Ekranas
46′SECOND HALF Neptūną Klaipėda 0–0 Ekranas
47′We said Neptūną Klaipėda at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–31–14
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Neptūną Klaipėda win: 71% at kick-off, 51% now
55′We said Neptūną Klaipėda at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–37–14
55′We expected about 3.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 49–37–14
62′We said Neptūną Klaipėda at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–43–13
65′Ekranas score on 65′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–29–59
65′We said Neptūną Klaipėda at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–29–59
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Neptūną Klaipėda 0–1 Ekranas
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Neptūną Klaipėda win: 71% at kick-off, 12% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Ekranas win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Neptūną Klaipėda win 44%)
67′Ekranas find the net on 67′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–9–89
67′We said Neptūną Klaipėda at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–9–89
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Neptūną Klaipėda 0–2 Ekranas
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Neptūną Klaipėda win: 71% at kick-off, 2% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Neptūną Klaipėda win: 71% at kick-off, 1% now
FTFULL TIME Neptūną Klaipėda 0–2 Ekranas
FTNeptūną Klaipėda 0–2 Ekranas · Neptūną Klaipėda win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Neptūną Klaipėda are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Neptūną Klaipėda 71%, draw 15%, Ekranas 14%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Neptūną Klaipėda v EkranasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Neptūną Klaipėda win71%

Draw15%

Ekranas win14%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Neptūną Klaipėda

Ekranas

8Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · 1 Lyga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Neptūną Klaipėda	27	0	44
16	Ekranas	27	−35	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · neptūną klaipėda winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

71% The market72%

Us71%

~~Market~~72%

We make Neptūną Klaipėda a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Neptūną Klaipėda v Ekranas~~2.45 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 44 v 15~~7 v 16

~~The market · Neptūną Klaipėda win~~72% · ours 71%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Neptūną Klaipėda win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Neptūną Klaipėda win	71%	72%	−1
Draw	15%	17%	−2
Ekranas win	14%	11%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	65%	65%	0
Both teams to score	53%	53%	0
Over 1.5 goals	83%	84%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	43%	46%	−3
Neptūną Klaipėda or draw	86%	89%	−3
Neptūną Klaipėda clean sheet	41%	–	–
Ekranas clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.3%

0123450 2.9 4.2 1 9.6 7.0 3.6 2 10.3 9.1 4.2 3 8.3 7.3 3.4 4 5.2 4.5 2.1 5 2.6 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Neptūną Klaipėda down, Ekranas across0–5 goals a side shown (95.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,353 1 Lyga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1 Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 215 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 3.89 goals a meeting; 8 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Neptūną Klaipėda at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ekranas away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.45 goals for Neptūną Klaipėda, 0.91 for Ekranas. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.89

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 9

~~Both scored~~8 of 9

~~Last meetings~~EKR 1–2 NEP · NEP 2–1 EKR · EKR 1–2 NEP · NEP 3–2 EKR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1 Lyga this season · since 29 Aug

NEPTŪNĄ KLAIPĖDA

WLWLLL3–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2

EKRANAS

LWLLDL0–5 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–6 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Minija	26	+54	67
2	Babrungas	27	+35	67
3	Be1 NFA	26	+20	54
4	Žalgiris II	28	+8	49
5	Tauras	26	+12	44
6	Dainava	27	+12	44
7	Neptūną Klaipėda	27	0	44
8	BFA	27	0	43
9	Atmosfera	26	+5	34
10	Jonava	27	−4	30
11	Garliava	28	−3	29
12	Hegelmann II	27	−25	26
13	Transinvest 2	27	−27	25
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	−22	23
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	−30	18
16	Ekranas	27	−35	15